Month: February 2016

  • Zika: World Bank Releases Initial Short Term Projections of Economic Impact on LAC Region

    Alicia Nicholls

    The prominence given to the mosquito-borne Zika Virus epidemic by Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Heads of Government at their 27th Intersessional Conference last week demonstrates that like its vector, the Aedes Aegypti Mosquito, the Zika Virus is turning out to be more than a mere pest for the Region. The outbreak is occurring at the height of a booming winter tourism season, bringing with it fears that the travel warnings and cancellations could spell disaster for tourist arrivals, with deleterious effects on our small open economies which are still struggling to recover in the wake of the global recession of 2008.

    Attempting to quantify the magnitude of the threat, the World Bank last week released its initial estimates of the short-term economic impact of Zika on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).  The main findings were as follows:

    • In aggregate the economic impact on the LAC Region in terms of foregone GDP is forecast to be pretty modest (a total of US$3.5 billion or 0.06% of GDP).
    • Fiscal revenues foregone in the LAC Region are forecasted to be a total of 420 million of 0.01% of GDP.

    One of the assumptions made by the World Bank in its modelling was that “the erosion of revenues will be mostly driven by the effort to avoid infection of pregnant women and women trying to become pregnant planning to travel to the region with their families”.

    However, the aggregate numbers only tell part of the story. The World Bank emphasized that for smaller tourism-dependent islands such as the Bahamas, Antigua & Barbuda and Barbados, the projected impacts are estimated to be “in excess of 1 percent of their GDP”.

    So far tourism officials  in the Caribbean Region have indicated there has been no major impact on the Caribbean region’s main export, the tourism sector, just yet. But the Caribbean Tourism Organisation’s State of the Industry Media Conference held last week clearly reiterated that despite a mostly positive outlook for regional tourism growth in 2016, the Zika threat is one which the region’s official public sector tourism trade organisation is monitoring closely and the organisation has tempered its tourism growth forecasts for 2016 accordingly.

    Besides the projected disproportionate impact on the Caribbean, the World Bank has cautioned that its estimates are based on the assumption that there will be a “swift, coordinated international response to the epidemic” and that its assumptions have the drawback of being made in a context where much is still unknown about the disease. For instance, despite anecdotal evidence, there is still no conclusive scientific link between Zika and Guillain-Barre Syndrome or its transmission through sexual intercourse. As noted above, the World Bank’s model assumes that the avoidance behaviour will be mostly driven by pregnant women and women trying to become pregnant and not those who fear sexual transmission of the disease. It has cautioned therefore that should science confirm sexual transmission, for instance, or should  there be a sharp increase in public perceptions about the Zika risks  “then the [human and economic] impacts could be much larger and will need to be re-assessed”.

    What the World Bank has stressed is the need for acting with alacrity to control the spread of the disease through a “coordinated and swift response”.  To this effect, the World Bank group announced in a press release that it was making $150 million available to assist LAC countries’ efforts to combat the Zika virus, including the provision of technical assistance teams. The World Bank in its report noted that tourism-dependent countries in the Caribbean may “require additional support from the international community to stem the economic impact of the virus”.  It is encouraging, therefore, to see that in the press release previously mentioned, World Bank Group President, Jim Yong Kim is quoted as stating “[t]he World Bank stands ready to support the countries affected by this health crisis and to provide additional support if needed”.

    This financial support will be a much needed intervention for some of measures to combat the spread of Zika which were discussed by CARICOM Heads of Government during the Intersessional Meeting in Belize last week. According to statements attributed to CARICOM Chairman, Prime Minister, the Honourable Dean Barrow of Belize, the measures include continuous public education and implementation of measures at ports of entry, tourism facilities, factories, schools and other businesses. There is also to be a Mosquito Awareness Week. Trade policy has also been given  a role to play through the proposed reduction of import taxes on mosquito defense systems such as insecticides and mosquito nets, similar to what Antigua & Barbuda’s cabinet recently did.

    The Zika epidemic has come at a very inopportune time for Caribbean economies and for regional tourism. Despite a record 7% growth in arrivals to the Caribbean in 2015 (according to CTO’s estimates), most regional economies are still plagued by high debt burdens, wide current account and fiscal deficits, limited GDP growth and competitiveness challenges.

    Continued action at the national and regional levels among governments, regional and national public health and tourism institutions and civil society will be needed to ensure proper and well-coordinated response plans to reduce the spread of the disease and lessen its human and economic impact on the Region. Financing from international agencies and multilateral development banks like the World Bank will have an important role to play in providing not just financing but technical assistance for these efforts.

    For the full World Bank report, please visit here:

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • Caribbean Weekly Trade & Development Digest – February 14-20, 2016

    These are some of the major trade and development headlines and analysis across the Caribbean region and the world for the week of February 14-20, 2016 :

    Regional

    US-Cuba Resume Commercial Air Services

    CNN: The United States has officially signed an agreement with Cuba to re-establish scheduled air services between the two countries. Starting Tuesday, U.S. carriers will have 15 days to submit applications to the Department of Transportation for routes they’d like to fly between the U.S. and Cuba in what’s sure to be a fierce bidding war. Read more

    Caribbean Tourist arrivals grew faster than global tourism rate for 2nd consecutive year

    Caribbean Tourism Organisation: 2015 marked the 2nd consecutive year that tourist arrivals to the Caribbean grew faster than the global growth rate of international trips and the first year in recent history that we have outpaced all major regions, since we started keeping records. Read more

    Antigua Plans to Open an Embassy, Trade and Economic Office in the UAE

    BIBA: The government has announced intention to establish an embassy, trade and economic office in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the capital of Abu Dhabi, which will be managed by Casroy James, Resident Ambassador designate, reports the Antigua Observer. Read more

    US: Bahamas Goes Further Than WTO On Copyright Protection

    Tribune 242: The US government says the Bahamas has gone further than what is required for full World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership in its efforts to protect intellectual properties. The US Trade Representative’s Office, in its year-end 2015 report on the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA), said this nation’s eight-strong package of intellectual property Bills exceeded international safeguards. Read more

    CARICOM Heads of Government Host their 27th Intersessional Meeting

    Caribbean Trade Law & Development: This week February 16-17th the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) converged in Placencia, Belize for their 27th Inter-sessional Meeting. The meeting was chaired by current CARICOM Chairman, Prime Minister, the Honourable Dean Barrow of Belize. Read more

    All options to be pursued for solution to banking sector threat – CARICOM Chair

    Caricom Today: The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) will employ the full gamut of options available to it to confront the banking crisis that is threatening the Region Chair of the Community and Prime Minister of Belize, the Hon. Dean Barrow said. He underscored the necessity of collective action, sensitisation and mobilisation. Read more

    GuySuCo threatens to halt crop if union proceeds with strikes

    Starbroek: Citing its “poor financial health”, the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) has threatened to halt reaping of the first crop if the Guyana Agricultural and General Workers Union (GAWU) goes ahead with planned strike action. Read more

    Low oil prices hit Trinidad; company to lay off workers

    Jamaica Gleaner: The energy company, BP Trinidad and Tobago (bpTT) says it will be laying off workers as the company seeks to deal with the low prices on the global market. Read more

    Belize’s cotton industry gets a boost

    LoveFM: The Government of Japan has made a donation to the Project for the Improvement of the Sea Island Cotton Industry in Belize. The donation is a little over two hundred thousand dollars. The contribution was made under the Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security projects of the Government of Japan. Read more

    Women’s Power Linked to Competitiveness

    BGISMedia: Women’s empowerment and the importance of competitiveness to Barbados were major talking points recently, when executive director of the International Trade Centre, Arancha Gonzales, paid a courtesy call on Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator Maxine McClean, at her Culloden Road office. Read more

    Civil Society Groups Meet in Barbados

    Antigua Observer: Civil society representatives from across the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM) countries will meet here on Tuesday to participate in the second preparatory meeting of the CARIFORUM Civil Society Consultative Committee.The Civil Society Consultative Committee is one of the institutional mechanisms established as part of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) that was signed here between Europe and CARIFORUM in 2008. Read more

    International

    Rising Tide of Protectionism Imperils Global Trade

    Financial Times: A rising tide of protectionism — led by emerging market nations — is undermining global trade and threatening to extend the economic slowdown, data suggest. Read more

    OECD: Elusive global growth outlook requires urgent policy response

    OECD: The world economy is likely to expand no faster in 2016 than in 2015, its slowest pace in five years. Trade and investment are weak. Sluggish demand is leading to low inflation and inadequate wage and employment growth. Read more

    Fiji and New Zealand discuss trade issues

    Fiji Times: FIJI may just change its mind and agree to the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER) Plus contrary to what has been publicly stated. Read more

    Trudeau says he expects Canada-EU free deal to be signed this year

    CTV News: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he expects the ambitious free trade deal between Canada and the European Union to be signed this year.When it is it ratified later, it will be an important milestone in relations between Canada and the 28-country European block. Read more

    Pakistan, Korea intch towards free trade agreement

    Pakistan Daily Times: Pakistan and South Korea are striving to launch a free trade agreement (FTA) following an ongoing feasibility study hoping to capitalise on each other’s geo-strategic leverage, Pakistan’s envoy to Korea said on Sunday. Read more

    US, ASEAN members agree to boost trade ties

    Business World: The United States and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have agreed to “further deepen ties and job-promoting trade and economic opportunities” among them, the Office of the United States Trade Representative said. Read more

    WTO Secretariat Circulates Meeting Notice and List of Items for DSB Meeting

    WTO: The WTO Secretariat has circulated a meeting notice and list of items proposed for the next meeting, on 26 February 2016, of the Dispute Settlement Body, which consists of all WTO members and oversees legal disputes among them. Read more

    Argentina and Uruguay agree that integration and Mercosur are the priorities

    Mercopress: Argentina and Uruguay foreign ministers agreed to hold twice a year meetings to address all issues in the bilateral agenda but with emphasis on integration and Mercosur which are ‘our main concerns’. Read more

    EU referendum: Cameron sets June date for UK vote

    BBC: The UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU on Thursday 23 June, Prime Minister David Cameron has said.The prime minister made his historic announcement in Downing Street after briefing the cabinet. Read more

    The 1st Meeting of the Continental Free Trade Area Negotiating Forum (CFTA-NF) will be February 22nd-27th

    African Union: The meeting will be preceded by a two-day capacity building and information sharing workshop (22-23 February 2016) where the AUC will introduce a capacity needs assessment and share findings and conclusions from a select number of studies that have been conducted on the establishment of the CFTA. Read more

    Symposium pledges new partnerships to empower women and youth

    Ghanaweb: The African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP), Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), have ended a symposium pledging to build new partnerships to empower women and youth. Read more

    Bonus

    ACP 1-1-on-1 Interview with SG H.E. Dr. Patrick Gomes

    ACP: Secretary General of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States H.E Dr. Patrick I. Gomes covers key issues to be discussed at the inter-sessional meeting of the Conference of Caribbean Heads of Government on 16-17 February, including the future of the ACP partnership with the European Union. Read more

    Recent Articles: Caribbean Trade Law & Development Blog

    Fat Taxes: What Role for Fiscal Policy Interventions in Promoting Good Health in Barbados?

    Barbados to allow for Incorporated Cell Companies

    Caribbean Region Most Affected by Loss in Correspondent Banking Relationships

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • 27th CARICOM Heads of Government Intersessional Meeting Concludes

    Alicia Nicholls

    This week February 16-17th the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) converged in Placencia, Belize for their 27th Inter-sessional Meeting. The meeting was chaired by current CARICOM Chairman, Prime Minister, the Honourable Dean Barrow of Belize.

    At the opening ceremony which was live streamed online, current CARICOM Chairman, the Honourable Dean Barrow and CARICOM Secretary-General Ambassador Irwin LaRocque and immediate Past Chairman, Prime Minister of Barbados, the Rt. Honourable Freundel Stuart, gave addresses.

    Issues discussed

    Security, correspondent banking, Zika and climate change were the major issues discussed by the Heads of Government over the two day meeting. The Heads of Government also discussed the Belize-Guatemala and Guyana-Venezuela border disputes, cricket governance, the future of ACP-EU relations, CARICOM-Dominican Republic relations and the application for Associate Membership of the Community by six territories.

    Outcomes

    According to the Communiqué released following the meeting, there were several outcomes. The following are excerpts from the communiqué:

    • Re-appointment of Secretary-General and two-term limit: Current Secretary-General of CARICOM Ambassador Irwin LaRocque, was re-appointed for his second term by the Heads of Government as Secretary General of the Community. The Heads agreed that the post of Secretary General would have a maximum of two terms.
    • Protocol to Incorporate CONSLE as an Organ of the Community: The Protocol Amending the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas to Incorporate the Council for National Security and Law Enforcement (CONSLE) as an Organ of the Community and the Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (IMPACS) as an Institution of the Community was opened for signature. Trinidad & Tobago, St. Lucia and Guyana have signed the Protocol so far.
    • Appointment of a High-Level Group on Correspondent Banking: Heads of Government agreed to the appointment of a high-level advocacy group on Correspondent Banking, led by the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, with the responsibility to represent the interest of the Region in addressing the issue.
    • Climate Change: Heads of Government agreed to maintain the diplomatic demarche at international levels in support of the 1.5°C goal and that the Task Force on Sustainable Development should continue their work to facilitate the implementation of the Agreement.
    • Zika: The Heads of Government mandated CARPHA and the CARICOM Secretariat to report to the Council for Human and Social Development on Health on the implementation and effectiveness of the course of action agreed to tackling Zika. Heads of Government endorsed the proposal for a Caribbean Mosquito Awareness Week to be inaugurated in May 2016.
    • Associate Membership of CARICOM: Heads of Government received a report from a Technical Working Group (TWG) on issues related to Associate Membership in CARICOM. Noting the on-going reforms in the Community and the resource challenges that would be faced by the Secretariat with respect to any future enlargement of the Community, Heads of Government recognised the need for the articulation of an enlargement policy which should be submitted for their consideration at the July meeting of the Conference.
    • Relations with the Dominican Republic: Heads of Government agreed that the human rights situation of Dominicans of Haitian descent must form part of the Agenda of the CARIFORUM-EU policy or political dialogue.
    • ACP-EU Relations: Heads of Government received a presentation on the Future of the African Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP). His Excellency Ambassador Patrick Gomes, Secretary-General of the African Caribbean Pacific Group of States (ACP) also attended the meeting.
    • Cricket Governance: Heads of Government endorsed the recommendations of the Final Report of the Review Panel on the Governance of Cricket of October 2015 and affirmed that they must be implemented.
    • Border Disputes: Heads of Government reaffirmed their unequivocal support for the maintenance and preservation of Belize and Guyana’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    These issues will likely be further discussed at the 37th Regular Meeting of the Conference which will be held July 4-6th. It will be co-hosted by the CARICOM Secretariat and the Government of Guyana and will be chaired by Prime Minister of Dominica, the Honourable Roosevelt Skeritt, who will assume chairmanship of the Community in July.

    The full communiqué of the 27th Heads of Government Interessional Meeting may be viewed here.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • Fat Taxes: What Role for Fiscal Policy Interventions in Promoting Good Health in Barbados?

    Alicia Nicholls

    Public health is once again under the microscope in Barbados, with the lens being focused on the crippling burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) on the country’s health care system. According to data reported by Nation News, “an estimated 64 per cent of adult Barbadians are overweight and 31 per cent of children are obese or overweight”. If that is not worrying enough, NCDs account for 84 percent of total deaths in Barbados, according to World Health Organisation estimates. What is more, the rates of diabetes and diabetic-related amputations in Barbados are among the highest in the world. The net result is a reported $700 million a year health care budget, which is very unsustainable for a cash-strapped small island developing state which also has an aging population.

    Not for the first time, public health advocates in Barbados have proposed levying a tax on foods with high fat and sugar contents as one policy measure to force dietary change among Barbadians. While it would appear that this suggestion has not met with the Barbados Government’s approval at this time, it does raise the question of what role could and should fiscal policy interventions play in promoting good health in Barbados.

    The intersection of fiscal and health policy

    Fiscal policy instruments are used by Governments mainly to raise revenue. However,their use  as tools for pursuing public health objectives has been receiving increased attention by governments around the world which are faced with a high incidence of obesity and NCDs. Public health advocates have argued that in much the same way that “sin taxes” such as excise taxes on alcohol and cigarettes have reduced consumption of these products over time, taxing foods high in fat, sugar or salt could influence consumption patterns away from poor dietary habits, a major risk factor for obesity and NCDs.

    The fat tax is usually levied as an ad valorem or specific tax, increasing the price of the product with the intention of dampening consumer demand for the taxed product and forcing a switch to healthy alternatives. Effective August 2015, Barbados introduced a 10 percent excise tax on “sweetened beverages”. Given its novelty, it is unknown whether the “sweet drink tax” has led to any shift in Barbadians’ soft drink consumption patterns. It is to be reviewed in two years to determine whether it has met its objectives.

    Fat taxes, like most taxes, are highly unpopular. Opponents argue that these measures are regressive and inefficient and are an intrusion by Government on consumers’ rights to choose their own lifestyles. Opponents also argue that these taxes place a disproportionate burden on the poor, who spend a larger proportion of their income on food.

    Worldwide use of “fat taxes” 

    There is still limited empirical data on the efficacy of “fat taxes” in changing consumption patterns. Several academic studies internationally have sought to model the impact of proposed taxes on consumption behaviour with mixed results. However, as one study points out, there appears to be some consensus in the academic literature that these taxes have to be substantial (at least 20 percent) in order to shift consumer behaviour.

    In the real world, what little is known about fat taxes shows that their impacts has varied by market. Among the countries which have experimented with, or currently have fat taxes include Norway, France, French Polynesia, Samoa, Finland, Hungary, to name a few.

    Denmark is perhaps the favourite “poster child” for anti-fat tax critics. In October 2011 Denmark instituted a tax on foods with a saturated fat content of more than 2.3 percent, which was repealed only a year later after much public outcry and dissent. According to an IEP report, the tax failed for several reasons, including the lack of impact on Danes’ purchasing habits. Many Danes either switched to cheaper brands or crossed the border into neighbouring countries to purchase these items, phenomena which Danish policymakers either had not considered or had dismissed at the time of design and implementation of the tax.

    On the flipside, Mexico has been a success story. Mexico is currently battling an obesity rate which is the second highest among OECD countries. It imposed a tax of MX$1 (US$0.80) per litre on sweetened beverages and an 8 percent tax on foods containing 275 calories or more for each 100 grams in 2014. A study found that in the first year of the tax’s operation, the volume of sweetened drinks sales is said to have declined on average by 6 percent while there was a 4 percent increase in the sale of untaxed beverages like bottled water. The impact on consumption was most marked on lower income households.
    What these two case studies show is that the efficacy of a fat tax  would depend on its design and application.

    The proof is in the pudding

    While fat taxes are often regarded as a Government intrusion, lifestyle choices, though personal in nature, can create huge burdens on the public health apparatus and the public purse. In this vein, they are a legitimate Government concern. Government intervention in the market  is sometimes necessary to save people from themselves. My personal belief is that there is a role for fiscal instruments like fat taxes in public health policy.

    However, like the two cases studies of Denmark and Mexico show, the proof is in the pudding. After all, on what basis should unhealthy foods/drinks be taxed? Should it be based on their caloric content? What level of tax would be prohibitive enough to have a material impact on Barbadian consumers’ purchasing behaviour? The answers to these questions require extensive market research, including research on Barbadian consumers’ habits, the level of price elasticity of demand for these unhealthy foods, income elasticity, of unhealthy food demand, and any other unhealthy substitutes which consumers might logically shift to.

    International studies and case studies are instructive but as each market is unique, Barbadian-based studies would be more consequential. A good case study would be the “sweet drinks tax” which was introduced last year. Some economists have argued that the 10 percent levy is too small influence consumer behaviour and this may well be the case.

    While any policy no doubt should take into account the impact on the local manufacturing sector and employment levels therein, particularly at a time when the sector has not seen much growth, such a policy could induce manufacturers to reduce the sugar and fat contents in their products and to produce more health-conscious alternatives. Even without a fat tax and before the introduction of the “sweet drink tax”, we have seen some of our Barbadian manufacturers over the years introducing health-friendly alternatives to the market with success as Barbadians become more health conscious. One ice cream manufacturer has introduced diabetic ice cream, while another manufacturer has a line of low fat milks and low sugar juices.

    There is a possible role for a fat tax but other policy interventions are needed as well. One of the major reasons given by most Barbadians for the popularity of unhealthy foods over healthy foods is the lack of affordability of many healthy alternatives. This pricing discrimination is seen in some supermarkets where low-fat foods are often more expensive than their high fat counterparts, which gives consumers little incentive to buy “healthy”. Healthy foods should be exempted from the imposition of value added tax, while import duties should be removed on healthy products, vegetables and fruits which are not made or produced locally to increase their affordability to the general public.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.