Author: caribbeantradelaw

  • Denial and Banning of Dancehall and Trinibad Artists across CARICOM : Compatible or Incompatible with Regional Integration Law

    Denial and Banning of Dancehall and Trinibad Artists across CARICOM : Compatible or Incompatible with Regional Integration Law

    Rahym R. Augustin-Joseph (Mr.) (Guest contributor)

    Overtime, there has been a discernible increase in the denial of entry or even banning of certain dancehall and Trinibad artists, who were scheduled to perform in Caribbean countries in 2024 such as K-Mann 6IXX in Antigua and Barbuda and DJ Punz in St. Kitts and Nevis.    

    Earlier, in 2022, Skeng was denied future permits for any show he was scheduled to have in Guyana, after the Baderation event he had, was disrupted by gunfire and bottles turned missiles. In response, the Guyanese Government therefore noted that they would no longer issue permits to skeng or other artists whose lyrics included violence and public disorder to perform in Guyana. In 2024 however, it appears that this position was reversed as Skeng performed in Guyana.

    But these refusals and banning of artists from other Caribbean countries is not a new phenomenon, as in 2014 Jamaican artiste Tommy Lee Sparta, or Cabral Douglas was denied entry into Dominica, where he was supposed to perform, but it raised concerns for public safety. In 2010, Vybz Kartel was issued a performance ban in Saint Lucia and Barbados, citing his lewd lyrics and raunchy performances, and in 2009, Bounty Killer was also denied entry into Trinidad and Tobago, allegedly without reasons, while Vybz Kartel his reputed rival was allowed to enter and perform. There are many more examples of the denial of entry and banning of artists in the Caribbean.

    On the one hand, a wide cross section of the Caribbean peoples listen and engage with the music of these artists, and see it is a citadel of modern Caribbean culture. However, political leaders and technocrats have noted that these artists and their music are in the main, vulgar, misogynistic, crude, and have a major influence in the increased crime and violence in our society. It is their view that this music is contributing towards the increase in gang recruitment and violence, as people continue to be influenced by the lyrical component and call to action elicited by this music. Young people are therefore not seeing this music for its ‘creative expression’ but instead seeing this music for its literal meaning.

    One only has to listen to the words uttered by Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali of Guyana, when he noted during the 46th Regular Meeting of the Conference of the Heads of Government of CARICOM. He urged leaders to prevent the proliferation of violent music in their respective nations. “We do not need lyrics that promote violence in this region, We have the ability to promote positive lyrics that inspire people to think, act, and behave positively. As leaders, we must take this matter seriously and ensure that the region’s lyrics reflect the positivity embodied by Bob Marley and encourage positive living and change.”

    This debate however is to be had at another time, and within our respective countries, wherein one can examine properly whether the music which portrays violence has been having an effect on the perpetrators of violence within the Caribbean, such that if it is reduced, curtailed or banned across various mediums, that it would reduce violence significantly. This is a task for researchers across the region, which political leaders must take their cues from if they are to sustain such an argument.

    But, beyond just the consumption of the music by nationals in the respective Caribbean countries, it is also being packaged and sold through concerts and other mediums across the Caribbean. As such, the banning and denial of entry of the artists has effects on trade in services, and also possibly implicates regional integration law of which will be discussed briefly here.

    So, how is the banning and denial of entry of artists to ply their trade within the Caribbean a regional integration law problem?

    As you may be aware, every CARICOM national has an automatic right of entry and stay within another CARICOM country for a maximum of 6 months pursuant to the 2007 Conference Decision of the CARICOM Heads of Government, Article 45 of the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas, and the seminal case of Shanique Myrie v. The State of Barbados. This automatic right must also be hassle free, or without harassment or the imposition of impediments. Beyond just the mere right of entry, cases such as Tamika Gilbert v. The State of Barbados also notes that the right extends to being able to move freely within the particular country without any harassment and impediments.

    In restricting such right however, the offending state can only do so on two strict and narrowly applied grounds i.e., if the individual is an undesirable or a charge on public funds. Under the first prong, the offending state must show that the individual presents a genuine, present and sufficiently serious threat to national security and safety, public morals, and national health of the member state affecting one of the fundamental interests of the society. So, individuals who actually pose or can reasonably be expected to pose such a threat. It is interesting however, that the cases from the European Court of Justice also suggest that one cannot refuse an individual of another state to one’s territory by reason of or of the threat of conduct which when attributable to their own nationals, do not give rise to repressive measures or other genuine and effective measures intended to combat such conduct. One must show essentially that their own nationals who engage in the behaviour which is refused are prosecuted regularly or otherwise subjected to some legal action.  This begs the question of whether the states which have denied entry and banned artists altogether, have similarly banned local artists which share similar lyrical content in their songs?

    In the latter, one must show that the individual does not have sufficient funds, such that they will become a charge on public funds, wherein they do not have sufficient monies for the duration of their visit, lack possession of online cash and card among other considerations. Further, when refusing an individual, there are certain procedural elements that the offending country must satisfy, which include inter alia, that they must (I) inform the individual in writing why they are being refused entry, (II) state the reasons why they are refused entry (III) provide them with the right to challenge such decision, through an effective appeal or review procedure with adequate safeguards to protect the rights of the persons denied entry and (IV) allow them the opportunity to consult with an attorney or their consular official of their country.

    The probing questions is therefore whether reasons have been given to these artists justifying their performance ban, how long are these measures in effect and is there is a review mechanism for these artists to allow them to appeal against the performance ban and what do these review mechanisms look like. These are according to Dr. Waite, “serious legal and policy questions that have implications for our regional integration movement, cultural exchange, vibrancy of socio-political commentary and our community rights. In order to answer them, a probing review is necessary, not a knee-jerk emotional and moral response.”

    However, the right which the refused artists will be captured under is the Article 46 right, which is where community nationals who are skilled nationals are able to travel freely across the region to ply their skills upon attainment and presentation of their CARICOM Skills Certificate. As such, the artists or musicians should be able to travel to any CARICOM state, hassle- free, without any impediments or harassment for a period of 6 months.

    Should the abovementioned artists have their CSME Certificate, which is attained by artists after they provide, (I) copies of their portfolio work which include pictures, videos, news, reports, examples of their work, (II) letters from their previous employers which state the period of employment and a job description- which is a bit problematic of a criteria, recognising the entrepreneurial nature of most of our artists and their engagement in the gig economy, (III) letters of reference from previous individuals attesting to work previously and (IV) five invoices dated within the last six months. However, the artists can only enjoy such right of freedom of movement with the acquisition of the CSME Certificate which would validate their status as a skilled national.  As such, on a prima facie level, the banning of artists and the denial of entry into certain countries within the Caribbean already has affected and infringed on their community rights as a CARICOM citizen, wherein they can receive redress before the Caribbean Court of Justice in its original jurisdiction.

    Of course, any state, which has banned the artists who had upcoming and scheduled performances and shows in their respective countries if challenged would argue that these artists can be classified as ‘undesirables.’ As such they would argue that these artists represent a genuine, present and sufficiently serious threat to their national security, safety, and public morals, and they affect one of the fundamental interests of society. Their argument would possibly be that these artists by virtue of their lyrical component of their music could or have elicited violence in their respective countries, especially with increasing crime and violence statistics and as such is a threat to the national security. Further, they may argue that the lyrics of the artists may also be against public morals, particularly violent music which encourage gun violence. Recognising that there has been no cases within the region which have touched and concerned the exceptions, with regards to the nexus of violence and national security and public morals, one has to look towards the European Court of Justice jurisprudence, which the CCJ would look to.

    Within the ECJ, Catherine Barnard in her text, The Substantive Law of the European Union, Four Freedoms has noted that, the court grants member states a certain latitude and margin of discretion to determine what constitutes national security or public security in light of the national circumstances. It would therefore vary from one member state to another as noted in Van Duyn v. Home Office [1974]. Moreover, the courts provide the relevant national authorities an area of discretion within the limits imposed by the treaty, particularly as it does not provide a uniform set of values related to conduct which may be considered contrary to the national security interests of a country. However, the court still maintains its overarching view that there must be a genuine and sufficiently serious threat affecting the fundamental interests of the society.

    However, the court has noted in Shanique Myrie, which is a slight departure from the abovementioned, when they noted that public policy cannot be used as a justification for derogation from the fundamental principle of freedom of movement and hassle-free travel of community nationals wholly or unilaterally be determined by each member state without being subject to control by the major community organs, in particular the conference and ultimately by the court as the guardian of the RTC.

    The unfortunate or fortunate thing about the law and the decision by the court is that it forces a ‘culture of justification’ as coined by the South African public law scholar Etienne Mureinik, albeit post-law and decision making, wherein our officials must justify their decisions utilising evidence, logical reasoning as the court does not provide a carte blanche to the decision maker, which is critical for policy making and decision making. While members of the public may see it as being heavy handed, Article 211 of the RTC, provides the CCJ with this exclusive and compulsory jurisdiction to interpret and apply the RTC.

    As such, questions which have been posed by Dr. Neto Waite, on this subject are instructive and worthy of repetition here, when he asked whether it is right to argue that salacious lyrics undermine public morality and national security, is it true that lyrics about violence and rebellion against government harm public order? Has it ever posed a serious and sufficient risk and if so what does such intelligence tell us? Is the performance ban the best mechanism to deal with it, is it not too draconian and shouldn’t adult concertgoers be left to decide for themselves what sort of lyrics they wish to enjoy? In addressing whether the concern is minors being exposed to such music, he also argues correctly, whether it would be more appropriate for the government In consultation with civil society, implement a parental rating system for concerts based on the lineup of artists which can protect minors and respect the agency of adults to determine what types of music they want to listen to.

    However, from the reports in the media, it appears that save and except for Tommy Lee Sparta or Cabral Douglas, of which the CCJ has ruled on, the artists are not being denied entry after they have attempted to enter the respective countries. Instead, they are being banned from before. This does not mean they are not captured under the abovementioned. It just means that existing domestic Immigration legislation is being utilised to preclude entry which has been addressed in Maurice Tomlinson v. The State of Belize and Trinidad and Tobago. The court has therefore noted however that the mere existence of incompatible legislation, which suggests that there are categories of individuals who may not be eligible to enter the respective country, without it being harmonised with community law is not ipso facto, incompatible. Instead, the court will assess the state practice of the particular state to decide whether the legislation is incompatible with regional integration law.

    Therefore, this denial and banning of dancehall and trinibad artists would be assessed on a country-by-country basis in order to assess whether the individual country has a history of banning of dancehall and trinibad artists, which would be determinative of the legislation and state practice being incompatible. As such, countries such as Guyana, St. Kitts and Nevis among others may be found inconsistent, and the artists can make a claim even prior to entering that they will be denied entry, because of the legislation and also the application of the legislation with the banning of the artists. The artists would therefore have a claim before the CCJ in its OJ.

    However, CARICOM countries should take heed of the warning of the CCJ, who noted in Maurice Tomlinson, “that the court does not condone the indefinite retention on the statute book of a national law which in appearance seems to conflict with obligations under Community Law, and member states must ensure that national laws, subsidiary legislation and administrative practices are transparent in their support of the free movement of all CARICOM nationals and there should be harmonisation of the legislation with Community Law. If there is any permanent or indefinite discord between administrative practices and the literal reading of the legislation, then the rule of law requires clarity and certainty especially for nationals of other Member states who are to be guided by such legislation and practice.”

    Another right of the Artists, which may be affected is the right to not be discriminated on the grounds of nationality, as per Article 7 of the RTC. Essentially, in refusing entry to the artist, the offending state cannot discriminate on the artist solely on the basis of their nationality. Essentially, the artists must therefore show that similar individuals i.e., individuals who sing music similar to them have not been denied entry and that these individuals have no separate distinction other than their nationality. The unfortunate hurdle that they will face however is the high and unreasonable evidentry burden, as noted in Shanique Myrie v. Barbados, where the court noted that to show discrimination one has to show that there is statistical data which shows discrimination against the particular nationality that the individual artist has come from. It does not allow discrimination to be seen on a case-by-case basis, with the evidence being solely attributed from the particular case.

    The last right however which may affect the artist is the right to provision of services under Article 36 of the RTC, which is connected to the right to freedom of movement as noted in Shanique Myrie v. Barbados. Cabral Douglas v. The State of Dominica notes that an individual can be a service provider, if they satisfy condition precedent in Article 36 which is that (I) it must be within an approved activity in an approved sector, which music and performances are, (II) It must be supplied cross-border, which is satisfied as the artists are moving from one country to another. This would be different from Cabral Douglas, which has been critiqued, where the court held that he could not show that he was providing services because he was from Dominica attempting to provide services in Dominica and therefore the cross-border element was not satisfied. Thirdly, the element of temporary nature will be satisfied as they are travelling for a concert or some other performances which would be temporary. Finally, there must be renumeration as they are going to benefit from the payment by the patrons among other forms of income arising from the concert.

    Recognising the above, it would be advisable that these artists troubleshoot their cases in the OJ of the CCJ in order for the court to provide a definitive ruling on this matter, to guide or instruct states as to how to treat with these artists as a collective, ensuring state decisions are compatible with community law, as individual states believe they may be affecting their public morals, national security among other fundamental interests of the society.

    This is particularly opportune as there are further promises to increase freedom of movement in the region. The region cannot continue to address these matters in isolation and also ignore the trade and possible incompatibility implications of the individual countries with the RTC.

    Rahym Augustin-Joseph is the 2025 Commonwealth Caribbean Rhodes Scholar. He is a recent political science graduate from the UWI Cave Hill Campus and an aspiring attorney-at-law. He can be reached via rahymrjoseph9@ gmail.com and you can read more from him here.

    Photo credit: WordPress AI-generated image

  • Trade Year in Review 2024: Top 5 Trade Developments

    Trade Year in Review 2024: Top 5 Trade Developments

    Alicia Nicholls

    As 2024 draws to a close and we prepare to welcome 2025 in another week or so, it is time yet again to reflect on the defining trade policy developments that shaped these past twelve months. This year unfolded against a backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions, an escalating climate crisis, and economic uncertainty. Yet, amidst these challenges, we also witnessed a resurgence in global trade growth, some landmark trade agreements, and other notable developments, including right here in the Caribbean.

    Here are my picks for the top five trade stories that left their mark in 2024.

    1. Global Trade Hits Record High Amid Uncertain Outlook

    According to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its latest Global Trade Update, global trade will surge to an unprecedented $33 trillion in 2024, surpassing its 2022 record, and growing by 3.3% over 2023 levels. This impressive growth was driven by a robust 7% expansion in services trade, offsetting the more modest 2% growth in merchandise trade, which remains below its 2022 peak. However, the growth pattern was uneven, with developed regions taking the lead in the third quarter.

    While UNCTAD predicts a positive start to 2025, it notes that potential escalation in trade wars, geopolitical instability, and the increasing adoption of industrial policies by major economies add layers of uncertainty.

     The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest G20 Trade Measures report highlights a notable uptick in trade restrictions and the proliferation of climate-focused support measures by G20 countries, underscoring the complex relationship between protectionism and sustainability.

    2. Barbados Hosts Inaugural Global Supply Chain Forum

    In May, Barbados made history by co-hosting the first-ever Global Supply Chain Forum with UNCTAD. This groundbreaking event convened global leaders, experts, and stakeholders to tackle the critical issues of sustainable and resilient transport and logistics in Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

    The Forum culminated in the adoption of the Barbados Ministerial Declaration, a pivotal contribution to the Fourth International Conference on SIDS (SIDS 4) held in Antigua & Barbuda shortly thereafter. As an attendee of both events, I would like to once again extend kudos to the organisers on two very well organised events which exemplified the Caribbean region’s role in contributing to global discussion and action on key trade and development issues.

    3. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Secures Second Term

    In November, World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was appointed by the General Council via consensus to a second four-year term starting September 1, 2025. Her leadership comes at a critical juncture, with the WTO navigating legacy reforms and heightened trade tensions. Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s four-year vision encompasses a WTO that delivers results, modernises to remain relevant, and capitalises on emerging trade opportunities. Her agenda includes finalising agreements on the outstanding agenda of the fisheries subsidies agreement (Fish 2) and Investment Facilitation for Development and preparing for the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Cameroon in 2026.

    4. Landmark Trade Agreements and Ongoing Negotiations

    This year saw several landmark trade agreements. The European Union and four Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) finalized a historic deal after 25 years of negotiations. This agreement promises to deepen economic cooperation and includes provisions addressing deforestation concerns, a contentious point during talks.

    In November, Costa Rica, Iceland, New Zealand, and Switzerland signed the Agreement on Climate Change, Trade, and Sustainability, setting a precedent for integrating climate and sustainability goals into trade agreements. Meanwhile, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) launched its operationalization phase with five key instruments adopted, marking a significant leap for intra-African trade.

    Closer to home, Trinidad & Tobago and Curaçao advanced negotiations on a partial scope agreement, expected to conclude in 2025.

    5. Donald Trump’s Re-election and Its Trade Implications

    Campaigning on promises of reshoring manufacturing and imposing hefty tariffs, incoming US President Donald Trump’s second term is poised to once again reshape U.S. trade dynamics. He has already threatened more tariffs on China, as well as tariffs on its US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement partners: Canada and Mexico. Increased US tariffs on imports from its major trading partners, and retaliatory tariffs by these trading partners could signal potential disruption to the global trade landscape.

    Trade analysts are bracing for ripple effects, including retaliatory measures and a potential pivot toward greater unilateralism. The implications for the multilateral trading system and global economic stability will undoubtedly be profound, making this a development to watch in the coming months.

    Looking Ahead

    At the CTLD Blog, we remain committed to delivering insights on the evolving trade landscape. As we bid farewell to 2024, I extend my heartfelt gratitude for your readership and engagement throughout the year. Here’s wishing you and your families a joyful holiday season and a prosperous 2025. Stay tuned as we continue to unpack the stories shaping global trade in 2025!

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade and development specialist and the founder of the Caribbean Trade Law and Development Blog: www.caribbeantradelaw.com.

  • Barbados’ Debt-for-Climate Resilience Swap: A Blueprint for Sustainable Development

    Barbados’ Debt-for-Climate Resilience Swap: A Blueprint for Sustainable Development

    Ainsley Brown (Guest contributor)

    Barbados has once again positioned itself as a global trailblazer, completing what it calls the world’s first debt-for-climate resilience swap, a groundbreaking financial arrangement that frees up USD$165 million for critical investments in water infrastructure, food security, and environmental protection. This bold move not only addresses urgent climate adaptation needs but also underscores Barbados’ commitment to sustainable development and ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) principles.

    This initiative is a watershed moment for small island developing states (SIDS) and other climate-vulnerable nations facing the triple crises of high debt, climate change, and biodiversity loss. But what does this deal mean in the broader context of global sustainability, and can it serve as a template for other countries grappling with similar challenges?

    What Is a Debt-for-Climate Resilience Swap?

    In essence, a debt-for-climate resilience swap involves a country negotiating with its creditors to restructure or reduce its sovereign debt in exchange for commitments to invest in climate resilience or biodiversity conservation. In Barbados’ case, the funds will be channeled into:

    • Water infrastructure projects: Including the construction of a new South Coast Water Reclamation and Reuse Facility to more than double water availability by 2050.
    • Environmental protection: Investments in mangrove conservation and water restoration.
    • Agricultural resilience: Enhancing food security amidst rising climate pressures.

    This model allows governments to reallocate resources from debt servicing to vital climate adaptation measures. For creditors, it’s an opportunity to support global public goods like biodiversity conservation while safeguarding their financial interests.

    Why Debt Swaps Matter for SIDS and Climate-Vulnerable Countries

    Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley aptly describes this transaction as a model for other vulnerable states. Small island nations like Barbados are the “canaries in the coal mine” of climate change, grappling with rising sea levels, more frequent hurricanes, and dwindling freshwater resources.

    Water Scarcity in Barbados

    Barbados is one of the most water-scarce nations in the world. Climate change exacerbates this scarcity, threatening not just daily life but also economic activities like agriculture. The New South Coast Water Facility, financed through the swap, aims to alleviate these challenges by increasing water availability and reducing pollution in the Caribbean.

    The Debt Crisis

    Debt burdens severely limit the ability of developing nations to invest in climate resilience. According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global sovereign debt reached a staggering USD$92 trillion in 2022. More than 50 of the poorest countries are on the brink of default, with some spending more on interest payments than on health or education.

    Barbados’ debt restructuring initiative is part of a broader effort to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio from 105% to 60% by 2036.

    Global Examples and Lessons Learned

    Barbados is not alone in leveraging debt swaps to address climate challenges:

    • Belize: A 2021 debt-for-nature deal reduced its debt by 12% of GDP and unlocked USD$180 million in long-term conservation funding, helping protect the Western Hemisphere’s longest coral reef.
    • Ecuador: Converted USD$1.6 billion of debt into USD$12 million annually for Galápagos Islands conservation, under the world’s largest debt-for-nature deal.
    • Seychelles: Pioneered marine debt-for-nature swaps, safeguarding its ocean territory while alleviating fiscal pressures.

    These examples illustrate how debt swaps can provide fiscal relief, protect biodiversity, and attract new actors and financing mechanisms into the climate action space.

    The Bridgetown Initiative: Reimagining Global Finance

    Barbados’ efforts are closely tied to the Bridgetown Initiative, a global movement led by Prime Minister Mottley to reform the international financial architecture. Key proposals include:

    1. Redefining loan terms: Preventing nations from spiraling into debt crises after climate disasters.
    2. Mobilizing USD$1 trillion for climate resilience: Through development banks and discounted lending for vulnerable countries.
    3. Establishing a global reconstruction mechanism: Backed by private-sector investment to fund post-disaster recovery.

    The initiative recognizes that the current financial system, designed in a post-World War II era, is ill-equipped to address today’s challenges, including systemic inequality and climate change.

    Challenges and Limitations of Debt Swaps

    Despite their promise, debt-for-nature and debt-for-climate swaps are not panaceas. Critics highlight several challenges, which include:

    • Limited scale: While impactful, the financial relief from debt swaps is often small relative to the scale of global adaptation needs, estimated at USD$359 billion annually by the United Nations.
    • Complexity: These transactions require extensive negotiations, partnerships, and upfront financing, which can deter broader adoption.
    • Dependency on grants and private investment: Debt swaps cannot replace the need for concessional financing, grants, or private sector participation.

    A recent IMF report underscores that while debt swaps are valuable, they must complement—not replace—comprehensive debt restructuring and other financial tools.

    A Blueprint for the Future?

    Barbados’ leadership sets an example of how innovative finance can align debt management with sustainable development goals. The country’s latest debt swap, bolstered by guarantees from institutions like the European Investment Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, illustrates the power of partnerships. This approach also offers co-benefits, such as potential credit rating upgrades, as seen in Belize, which can lower borrowing costs and unlock further investment opportunities. For countries in the Global South, debt swaps could:

    • Enhance fiscal space: Freeing up resources for health, education, and climate action.
    • Attract international support: By demonstrating strong commitments to ESG principles.
    • Foster resilience: By addressing both immediate adaptation needs and long-term sustainability.

    Conclusion

    Barbados’ debt-for-climate resilience swap is not just a financial transaction; it’s a bold declaration that climate action and fiscal responsibility can—and must—go hand in hand. As more countries explore similar arrangements, the potential for scaling up global climate finance becomes evident. However, achieving transformative change requires systemic reform, including:

    1. Expanding access to concessional financing for vulnerable nations.
    1. Enhancing the efficiency and scope of global financial institutions.
    2. Prioritizing sustainable development in creditor-debtor negotiations.

    Barbados has provided a roadmap for others to follow. The question is no longer whether debt swaps are feasible but how quickly and effectively they can be scaled to meet the global challenges of our time. As Prime Minister Mottley aptly said, this is not just about Barbados—it’s about creating a future where “people and the planet” take precedence over profit and debt burdens. Let this serve as a call to action for governments, financial institutions, and global citizens to rally behind innovative solutions for a more sustainable world.

    By pioneering this debt-for-climate resilience swap, Barbados has turned an economic challenge into an opportunity for leadership. The world would do well to take notice—and to act.

    Ainsley Brown is a global expert in economic development and special economic zones, passionate about aligning finance with climate action to create resilient futures.

  • What Trump 2.0 Could Mean for the Caribbean Region

    What Trump 2.0 Could Mean for the Caribbean Region

    Rahym R. Augustin-Joseph (Mr.) (Guest Contributor)

    Rahym R. Augustin-Joseph

    On November 5th the Caribbean watched with bated breath, the outcome of the US Elections, knowing that the results of the global superpower, would have significant and decisive implications for the future of the Caribbean, because of America’s tremendous influence and leadership in global multilateralism. Of course, the common refrain is that ‘if America coughs, the Caribbean catches the cold.’

    Notwithstanding, both the candidates lacking any particular and comprehensive plans for our region particularly in the trafficking of illegal firearms which is causing havoc in our streets, the Caribbean watched with a keen eye.

    But, as it was clear that Donald Trump had won the US Presidency, for the second time, Caribbean leaders such as Prime Minister Mia Mottley, Andrew Holness, Philip J. Pierre, Philip Davis and others, posted their congratulations, in signs of diplomacy, most noting that their countries remain committed to strengthening the close and enduring friendship and partnership with the US. The diplomatic niceties however could not obfuscate the questions they have, and the Caribbean people have about what it would mean for us and the stability or instability of the global international order.

    As such, what will Trump 2.0 mean for the Caribbean?

    Climate Change

    While we don’t know for certain what policies the Trump administration will pursue internally on climate change in light of increased climate-related disasters across the US, and the fact that the Inflation Reduction Act has continued to pour over $390 billion into EVs, and other climate resilient technologies, which have created millions of jobs and other benefits to Republican affiliated states. These may all disappear if he repeals sections of the Act. However, If this has impacts during the midterm elections, he may not be as keen to repeal.

    But his global actions will have disastrous impacts for the Caribbean, particularly since he has promised to withdraw the US again from the Paris Agreement, and possibly to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the multilateral framework for the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world, and which also provides financial and technical assistance for developing countries like the Caribbean to mitigate climate change through a shift to renewable energy, and to adapt to its impacts and respond to the loss and damage it creates.

    When these are coupled with his denial of the existence of climate change as a ‘hoax’, and his intention to ‘drill baby bill’ and ‘frack, frack, frack’, like never before,  increasing the fossil fuel stock of the US, which some have suggested would not only roll back the gains by President Joe Biden, but contribute an estimated 4 billion tons of additional CO2 emissions by 2030 and 25 billion tons by 2050, then these increases would significantly increase the vulnerability of the Caribbean to extreme weather events, more ferocious hurricanes, devastating droughts and floods, and deadly heatwaves, which can continue to plummet our GDPs, increase poverty, destroy infrastructure and roll back any gains made in our climate recovery processes.

    As we know, our Caribbean countries are low-lying and heavily exposed to rising sea levels, which erodes coastlines, and displaces populations and industries. Any withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which is meant to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs), will increase the emissions of these gases, thereby exacerbating the climate crisis and affecting our ability to protect lives and livelihoods. Of course, it is a no brainer that with warmer ocean temperatures that increase the intensity and ferocity of our hurricanes, the US exit will increase the levels of financial and technical support needed to bolster the climate recovery effort. Such an exit is even more egregious when you add the fact that the US, together with the other developed countries, are the ones that have created this existential climate crisis. The Caribbean may unfortunately be in for some hotter months, longer droughts and more devastating floods.

    What is needed now is not an increase in GHGs, which fuels the extreme weather patterns, which Trump promises, but a radical decarbonization of the US and other global economies. Caribbean leaders should therefore be prepared to dialogue with the President on these critical issues, but also to engage other European counterparts to step up and not bend over backwards to try and mould the climate regime around the vagaries of the US political currents.

    These countries, together with China, must now play leading roles in reducing the climate crisis. This is not to suggest however that when the US exits, the climate movement is ‘trumped’, but it is only morally appropriate that due to their overwhelming historical and current contributions to global GHGs, that the US contribute towards reducing the effects on developing countries. Additionally, they must meet their financial obligation, not just to the USD 100 billion per annum that was promised from 2020 by developed countries, but to a higher New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance, which was one of the UNFCCC’s Twenty-Ninth Conference of the Parties (COP 29) outcomes held in Baku, Azerbaijan. It is one thing to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, like Trump did during his first presidency, but it is another thing entirely to commit to increasing greenhouse gas emissions by expanding oil and gas exploration, given the severe impacts that Caribbean and other SIDS are already experiencing from the climate crisis.

    Immigration

    Trump’s immigration policy, according to him would see the largest domestic deportation operation in human history of millions of illegal immigrants.

    For the Caribbean, and Haiti in particular, this is troubling, because Trump’s inward-looking policies will devastatingly affect all who flee from war, climate crises, strife, political upheavals and the collapse of their states in search for a better life or the American dream, which has sustained the economic prosperity of America. This use of excessive force against already vulnerable and marginalised populations is testament of Trump’s disregard for human dignity and rights.

    Of course, it is easy for us to sit in comfort and say that ‘they should enter legally now or that they should return to their countries.’ That is a privileged position as our countries are not facing the life-threatening issues that Haiti and others do, requiring individuals to flee, as a condition of survival. Who feels it knows it!

    But have we for one moment, considered that it is also a global responsibility to ensure integration of displaced peoples, in tandem with our humanitarian and civil rights requirements, particularly in circumstances where the US has also contributed towards this destabilisation and has an opportunity to cure these wrongs? At least in Haiti’s case for certain. But, Trump may only compound the problem, making the work of the Expert Group more difficult, if he refuses to assist, but also if he increases his Haitian animus. Remember his eating the animals’ comments, and how they were poisoning the blood of America, ignoring the diversity of America.

    What is even more certain is that Trump may not provide support for the improvement of the Haitian state, such that migration is an option, and not a necessity.

    It will also now become almost impossible to gain a legal path to citizenship, as even those who have become citizens by marrying an American citizen or their child is a ‘dreamer’ are at risk of deportation, thereby further decreasing their quality of lives causing migration issues for the Caribbean.

    The implications for the Caribbean are a general sentiment of fear of migration and lack of belonging as they search for a better life, and a concomitant fear by those who voted for ‘closed borders’ of all who are not of the blood of America i.e., also Caribbean peoples. But, more directly, if there are Caribbean peoples who are ‘illegal immigrants’, working and providing remittances to their families back home, one can potentially see a massive reduction in the country’s remittances income, which contribute towards healthcare, education among other areas. The reduction will exacerbate poverty, which has wider economic impacts for the Caribbean economy. Further, there may be deeper fiscal and political strains on other Caribbean countries which would not be able to handle this sudden migration flows.

    Already, there are reports in mainstream media which suggests that certain Caribbean countries such as the Commonwealth of Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and Grenada have all denied the Trump’s transition teams proposals to deport migrants to these third countries, recognising the inability and difficulty to deport them to their home states. These countries have probably already made an analysis of the political, fiscal and ‘security’ constraints of this proposal and determined that their country is unable to handle this influx. But, even without a determination by these Caribbean leaders, there are international human rights considerations which should have been assessed prior to such requests being made. But this request and its attendant failure necessitates a rethinking of this policy position to deal with the immigration issues in a manner which is respectful to international human rights norms and laws, which ensures human dignity and protection.

    One would have to continue to follow these developments to see the extent to which this American off-shoot of the ‘British Rwandan scheme’ which met its demise in the courts and with the election of Sir Keir Stramer would extend to other parts of the world. It would be interesting to see where next will President Elect Trump turn to house the ‘deportees’ and what the American people who have voted for such immigration policies believe of the early indications of this policy failure?

    But, these issues of immigration should never be divorced from the underlying race relations, which as a region whose population is predominantly black should still be of concern to the Caribbean, particularly as President Trump in his last term was apathetic in his condemnation of these incidents which sparked the BLM and is ignorant and tone-deaf to institutionalised racism in the United States.

    The Caribbean region as a whole through their political leaders need to engage the President on the abovementioned.

    Foreign Aid

    In Trump 2.0, particularly with his isolationist ‘America First’ philosophy, there may be less pushback to aid cuts as there were in Trump 1.0, and it could mean that key developmental programmes and agencies within the Caribbean could receive less funding, particularly in areas that are not favourable to the Trump administration. It means that the Caribbean should now utilise the opportunity to continue forging new relationships with new nations, as opposed to confining itself to looking North.

    Trade

    As Trump seeks to reduce the US trade deficit, ensuring manufacturing jobs stay within the US, and ensure a baseline global tariff for imports, it has the potential to affect Caribbean exports to the US, making it more difficult through stricter trade regulations. Should there also be a modification of the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), which provides certain duty-free access to the US market, in favour of US production, it could also reduce the competitive advantage of Caribbean goods in US markets. But, recognising the large trade deficit with the US, the Caribbean poses no real threat to US jobs, and its beneficial nature to US industry might prove helpful to its continuation.

    Global Peace and Solidarity

    In global peace and solidarity, the wide cross section of people in the Caribbean, in addition to Caribbean leaders have echoed their Pro-Palestine support as noted through protests and online commentary, that there should be a two-state solution in which the two peoples can coexist. However, both the Biden-Harris Administration and now President Trump, has declared their unwavering support for Israel and their Prime Minister Netanyahu. They have suggested that Israel has a right to defend itself under International Law, but ignored that, while true, the acts of retaliation must not go beyond proportional self-defence where the actions must be defensive rather than punitive.  In this case, these actions have gone beyond. As such, a Trump presidency would see the continued support of Netanyahu, which is at odds with the position of the Caribbean in the main. The implications therefore is that Caribbean countries must dialogue with the US and other countries, in order to echo an approach of Middle East peace. Of course, one does not have to explain the approach which will be taken to the Caribbean’s friend, Cuba with the continued embargo.

    In the end, Caribbean leaders and people should never see the election of Donald Trump as far removed from impacting the Caribbean region but heed the words of David Rudder, the Trinibagonian Calypsonian, when he said that “they’re trying to pass all laws to spoil our beauty, but in the end we shall prevail. We must take a side or be lost in the rubble, in a divided world that don’t need islands no more. Are we doomed forever to be at somebody’s mercy, little keys can open up mighty doors. Rally!”

    Rahym Augustin-Joseph is the 2025 Commonwealth Caribbean Rhodes Scholar. He is a recent political science graduate from the UWI Cave Hill Campus and an aspiring attorney-at-law. He can be reached via rahymrjoseph9@ gmail.com.

    Image by Barbara from Pixabay