Caribbean Trade Law and Development

Category: trade news

  • Caribbean Trade & Development Digest – March 8-14, 2020

    Caribbean Trade & Development Digest – March 8-14, 2020

    Welcome to the Caribbean Trade & Development News Digest for the week of March 8-14, 2020! We are happy to bring you the major trade and development headlines and analysis from across the Caribbean Region and the world from the past week.

    THIS WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS

    The COVID-19 outbreak has this week been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation. Globally, reported infections are now over 150,000 with deaths at nearly 6,000. The outbreak continues to have a negative impact on stock markets, commodities prices and global supply chains. Businesses worldwide have begun restricting employees’ travel and implementing work from home policies.

    According to an UNCTAD report published this week, the outbreak could cause global foreign direct investment (FDI) to shrink by 5%-15%.

    World services trade growth continued to weaken toward the end of 2019 and into the first quarter of 2020 according to the World Trade Organisation’s Services Trade Barometer, released on 11 March 2020. The indicator does not yet fully capture the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus and is likely to decline further in the coming months, according to the WTO.

    The WTO became one of several organisations which has cancelled all meetings in light of COVID-19. The Government of Kazakhstan has cancelled the WTO’s Ministerial Conference that was scheduled to be held there June 8-11 in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In the Caribbean, several English-speaking Caribbean countries have now announced cases. This is in addition to several other non-English speaking Caribbean countries which reported cases earlier.

    See my articles on : The possible economic and trade impacts of COVID-19 on the Caribbean here and on small businesses/MSMEs here.

    REGIONAL NEWS

    ‘More trade coming’ with Suriname

    Barbados Today: With expected disruptions in global trade as a result of the COVID-19, Government officials are working around the clock to ensure that new opportunities are in place for Barbados to source some items from the region. Read more

    A WTO Investment Facilitation Agreement: Any added value for the Caribbean?

    Guyana Chronicle: With regional governments already undertaking reforms, would a WTO Multilateral Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement add value for the Caribbean or would the legal burdens of signing a multilateral agreement outweigh any potential benefits? Should the Caribbean seize this opportunity to be among the rule-makers in an area of development-interest to the region or should we sit this one out? Read more

    American firms, US revive ‘AmCham’ biz body

    Barbados Today: American business figures are seeking to re-establish a link with firms here and throughout the Eastern Caribbean in a bid to leverage new exports to the region. Read more

    All cruise lines cancel cruises over the next 30-60 days

    Barbados Today: Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) has announced that all member ocean cruise lines are pausing sailings over the next 30-60 days. For most cruise lines, the cancellations will span the next 30 days. Read more

    Coronavirus shuts down Guyana-Suriname ferry crossing

    Demerara Waves: The Guyana-Suriname ferry service has suspended operations because that neighbouring country on Friday registered its first case of the novel coronavirus. Read more

    Barbados hosts successful consultations on CARICOM Strategic Plan

    Barbados Advocate: National consultations held in Barbados this week to help map the way forward for the results-focused new ten-year Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Strategic Plan, have been described as “rich and fruitful”. Read more

    Implementation of the Extended Article 164 Regime of the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas

    St Lucia News Online: The Ministry of Commerce, International Trade, Investment, Enterprise Development and Consumer Affairs wishes to advise members of the general public of the impending implementation of a CARICOM wide initiative to enable the growth and development of the Less Developed Countries of CARICOM. Read more

    How will COVID-19 affect the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean?

    UNDP: The COVID-19 outbreak is a new potential source of volatility and a threat to the macroeconomic stability of Latin America and the Caribbean. While it is still too early to fully understand its impact on China’s growth, and how it will result in a slowdown in our region, what we know so far is that COVID-19 is spreading at an accelerated rate and has caused a disruption to China’s economy. Read more

    Belize and Florida continue to strengthen Bilateral Trade and Investment relationship

    Breaking Belize News: Тhе Веlіzе Тrаdе аnd Іnvеѕtmеnt Dеvеlорmеnt Ѕеrvісе (ВЕLТRАІDЕ), а ѕtаtutоrу bоdу undеr thе Міnіѕtrу оf Есоnоmіс Dеvеlорmеnt, Реtrоlеum, Іnvеѕtmеnt, Тrаdе аnd Соmmеrсе оf thе Gоvеrnmеnt оf Веlіzе (GОВ), wеrе hоѕtеd аt а twо-dау оutbоund Веlіzе Вuѕіnеѕѕ Міѕѕіоn іn Таllаhаѕѕее, Flоrіdа UЅА. Read more

    Jamaican businesses seek spin-offs from booming Guyanese economy

    Jamaica Observer: The massive oil discovery in Guyana will have a dramatic effect on driving its developing economy, with a growth rate of 85 per cent recently predicted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Read more

    INTERNATIONAL NEWS

    Coronavirus could shrink global FDI by 5% to 15%

    UNCTAD: The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak could cause global foreign direct investment (FDI) to shrink by 5%-15%, according to an UNCTAD report published on 8 March. Read more

    Global Diplomacy Grinds to a Halt on Infection Fears

    Foreign Policy: One by one, the U.N., WTO, and other major international players are canceling regular gatherings. Read more

    COVID-19 Survey: Impacts on Global Supply Chains

    Business Facilities: Nearly 75 percent of companies report supply chain disruptions in some capacity due to coronavirus-related transportation restrictions, according to the newly released results of a survey focused on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) business and supply chain impacts. Read more

    Coronavirus: US travel ban on 26 European countries comes into force

    BBC: President Donald Trump’s travel ban on 26 European nations has come into force in the US, as part of a contingency plan to tackle the coronavirus crisis. Read more

    COVID-19-hit Iran asks IMF for aid amid US sanctions

    Deutsche Welle: For the first time in six decades, Iran has requested a loan from the IMF to fight the coronavirus outbreak. US sanctions have isolated the country from the global financial system. They could also stop IMF assistance. Read more

    Brexit: coronavirus sparks calls to extend EU transition period

    The Guardian: Britain and the EU are facing calls to back away from a “game of chicken” and extend the Brexit transition period immediately, as both respond to the coronavirus pandemic. Read more

    Brexit: EU drafts trade deal ahead of talks with UK

    BBC: The EU has drafted a post-Brexit trade deal proposal, covering areas such as security, foreign policy and fisheries. The 441-page draft legal text, seen by the BBC, was sent to the 27 EU states on Thursday night, ahead of being presented to the UK next week. Read more

    African Free-Trade Deal on Track Despite Coronavirus

    Bloomberg: The coronavirus pandemic is unlikely to scupper a July 1 target for the first commerce under an African-wide free-trade deal, even if meetings to iron out details are being canceled, according to the zone’s most senior official. Read more

    Global business travel could suffer $820bn virus hit, says group

    Al Jazeera: The global spread of the coronavirus is increasingly affecting business travelers, an industry body said. Read more

    STRAIGHT FROM THE WTO

    NEW ON THE CTLD BLOG

    The Caribbean Trade & Development Digest is a weekly trade news digest produced and published by the Caribbean Trade Law & Development Blog. Liked this issue? To read past issues, please visit here. To receive these mailings directly to your inbox, please subscribe to our Blog below:

  • Caribbean Trade and Development News Digest – January 12-18, 2020

    Caribbean Trade and Development News Digest – January 12-18, 2020

    Welcome to the Caribbean Trade & Development News Digest for the week of January 12-18, 2020! We are happy to bring you the major trade and development headlines and analysis from across the Caribbean Region and the world from the past week.

    THIS WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS

    This was a busy week for trade news. The US-China phase one deal was signed. While it does not address all of the issues affecting US-China trade relations, it attempts a first crack at it. The full text of the Agreement may be accessed here.

    The US is one step closer to ratification of the revised USMCA. The US Senate’s approved revised US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by an overwhelming vote of 89 to 10, and the bill now goes to the President for signature.

    REGIONAL NEWS

    ACP EU CARICOM Workshop Set for Saint Lucia

    The Voice: Regional and international quality professionals from the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the European Union (EU) will gather in Saint Lucia next week as three days of discussions and training focussed on strengthening regional trade, get underway at the Coco Palm Resort, Rodney Bay, Castries. Read more

    Trade between Cuba and Russia grows in 2019

    On Cuba News: In 2019, commercial exchange between Cuba and Russia exceeded 500 million dollars, Cuban ambassador in Moscow Gerardo Peñalver Portal said to Sputnik. Read more

    TT moves to improve cross-border trade

    Newsday: A new port technology platform will help to improve this country’s trading across borders, said Trade Minister Paula Gopee-Scoon. Read more

    Paula pushes pan grant

    Newsday: Trade Minister Paula Gopee-Scoon told Newsday she was very pleased at Friday’s talks with Pan Trinbago president Beverly Ramsey-Moore and University of Trinidad and Tobago governor Prof Clem Imbert to promote her ministry’s new $5 million grant-facility to make steel pans. Read more

    TT Chamber CEO praises non-energy export growth

    Newsday: Chamber of Industry and Commerce CEO Gabriel Faria said the chamber is pleased with growth in non-energy exports. “This shows the benefit collaboration can bring,” he said. Read more

    UK and TT strengthen trade ties

    Newsday: British High Commissioner Tim Stew has urged local companies to engage with the UK companies which were brought in by the Department for International Trade (DIT) for the UK Defence and Security Trade Mission. Read more

    Rum-makers report rising sales

    Barbados Today: One of Barbados’ main rum producers is reporting a major turn around in its export business, which climbed over 80 per cent in the last three years. Read more

    Local Manufacturers Welcome Article 164 Implementation

    The Voice: Many St Lucians may be unaware of the January 1, 2020 implementation of Article 164 of the RTC. Read more

    Jamaica import bill rises by 6.5% in the first nine months of 2019

    Jamaica Observer: Jamaica’s imports for January to September 2019 were valued at US$4,816.5 million, an increase of 6.5 per cent when compared to US$4,520.4 million which was spent for the similar period in 2018 according to the International Merchandise Trade (IMT) Bulletin released recently by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). Read more

    Imports from the OECS, Haiti and Belize to attract zero percent tariff rate

    St Lucia News Online: A decision by CARICOM is set to benefit less developed countries (LDCs) of CARICOM including Saint Lucia. Read more

    Solving Jamaica’s Export Challenges

    Jamaica Gleaner: The export of Jamaican goods and services has long been recommended as the pillar on which the country can drive real and consistent growth while positively impacting many of Jamaica’s socio-economic challenges. Read more

    JMEA expresses concerns after release of import-export figures

    Jamaica Observer: Following the issuing of the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) report on the state of the country’s imports and exports situation for the period January to September 2019, the Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association (JMEA) has expressed its concerns at the figures. Read more

    Guatemala asks OAS to facilitate meeting with Government of Belize

    Breaking Belize News: Guаtеmаlаn mеdіа, Аgеnсіа Guаtеmаltеса dе Nоtісіаѕ rероrtеd thаt Guаtеmаlаn Рrеѕіdеnt, Аlејаndrо Gіаmmеttі hаѕ аѕkеd thе Оrgаnіzаtіоn оf Аmеrісаn Ѕtаtеѕ (ОАЅ) tо fасіlіtаtе а mееtіng wіth thе Gоvеrnmеnt оf Веlіzе.Ассоrdіng tо thе rероrt, thе mееtіng wіll bе tо рrоmоtе іntеrасtіоn аnd gооd rеlаtіоnѕ wіth Веlіzе іn оrdеr tо tаkе аdvаntаgе оf орроrtunіtіеѕ іn trаdе аnd tоurіѕm, аmоng оthеrѕ. Read more

    INTERNATIONAL NEWS

    Senate OKs North American Trade Deal To Replace NAFTA, Giving Trump A Much-Needed Win

    NPR: The Senate overwhelmingly approved a revised North American trade pact in a rare bipartisan vote Thursday that hands President Trump a victory on a key campaign promise just as lawmakers are preparing his impeachment trial. Read more

    U.S., EU, Japan agree new subsidy rules with China trade in focus

    Reuters: The United States, the European Union and Japan proposed new global trade rules on Tuesday to curb subsidies they say are distorting the worldwide economy, with China their clear target. Read more

    Mercosur braces for change amid calls for new trade rules

    Buenos Aires Times: Regional trade bloc faces uncertain future, with Argentina now in the minority and Uruguay and Brazil seeking the right to secure trade deals outside the bloc’s remit. Read more

    Mercosur summit in Paraguay will address a review of the external tariff

    Mercopress: The upcoming Summit of Heads of State of the Southern Common Market Mercosur, to be held in late June or early July this year, will be held in Encarnacion, capital of Itapúa Department, Paraguay. Read more

    With Brexit imminent, what are the chances of a UK trade deal with China?

    The Guardian: Last week, Donald Trump and Liu He, the Chinese vice-premier, signed phase one of a new trade arrangement between the US and China. The talks surrounding the agreement have been tortuous, leading to fears that the world could be caught up in a trade conflict between these two economic giants. Read more

    Trade Peace May Hurt Countries Left Out of U.S.-China Deal

    Bloomberg: President Donald Trump is set to sign his phase one trade accord with China on Wednesday and the public will finally get its first chance to look beneath the hood. A key question for other nations: How will China’s commitment to buy $200 billion worth of additional American goods and services impact their access to the world’s biggest economies? Read more

    Trade centers in regional countries to spur non-oil exports

    Tehran Times: To expand non-oil exports during the sanctions time, Iranian economic and trade organizations have been defining some strategies and resolved to pursue them vigorously. Read more

    Europe to assess whether US-China deal is WTO compatible

    Euractiv: The EU will assess whether a US-China deal to roll back some bilateral tariffs in exchange for increased US imports to China is compatible with World Trade Organisation rules, said Trade commissioner Phil Hogan on Thursday (16 January). Read more

    US-China trade rapprochement round one

    East Asia Forum: The conclusion of phase one of the trade negotiations between the United States and China has been welcomed by global markets because it has brushed off many uncertainties caused by the tense relationship between the world’s two largest economies over the past two years. Read more

    Brexit trade deals on the table at UK-Africa summit

    African Business Magazine: Organised by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), in partnership with Department of Trade (DIT), the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, (FCO) and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the one-day summit and side events are designed to seal UK-African business deals as the UK prepares to formally leave the European Union (EU) on 31 January. Read more

    UK channels aid budget as it seeks closer ties with Africa post-Brexit

    The Guardian: Britain has unveiled plans to channel part of the £14bn aid budget through the City as it seeks to exploit the global reach of the finance sector to boost investment in Africa. Read more

    BRICS: What’s in it for Africa?

    Africa.com: The BRICS group of emerging economies (made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) gather at the 5th annual BRICS summit in Durban, South Africa. It is the first time the summit is being held in Africa – and rightly so – as the theme for this year is BRICS and AFRICA: Partnership for Development, Integration and Industrialisation. State leaders of the five countries will be among at least 5,000 delegates at the two-day summit. Read more

    China’s trade with Africa grows 2.2 per cent in 2019 to US$208 billion

    South China Morning Post: Two-way trade grew by just 2.2 per cent in 2019 to US$208.7 billion, compared with a 20 per cent rise a year earlier, according to official figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. Read more

    Investment will overshadow trade in Japan-U.S. talks

    Japan Times: The Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement (JUSTA), the pinnacle for modern trade policy between the two allies, is now in force. Read more

    US tariffs on autos not mentioned in talks, EU trade chief says

    Deutsche Welle: In Washington to smooth out trade differences with the Trump administration, an EU commissioner said the subject of car tariffs did not come up. German carmakers will be happy to see the issue off the negotiating table. Read more

    UK treasury chief: Some businesses may hurt after Brexit

    The Associated Press: The British government has announced plans for special events on the night of Jan. 31 when the country officially leaves the European Union but the country’s treasury chief has admitted that some U.K. business sectors will suffer as a result. Read more

    U.K. Economy Won’t Stay Close to EU After Brexit, Javid Says

    Bloomberg: U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid signaled Britain is planning to shift its economy further away from the European Union’s, firing an early salvo in what’s set to be a fractious year in hammering out their future relationship. Read more

    Asean, RCEP trade partners unlikely beneficiaries from US-China trade war, Deloitte economist says

    South China Morning Post: An unexpected effect of the US-China trade war has been an apparent acceleration of the process to forge an Asian trading bloc that does not include United States, according to Deloitte China’s chief economist Xu Sitao. Read more

    India’s ‘door still open’ to RCEP free-trade deal: Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar

    South China Morning Post: More than two months after India pulled out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has suggested New Delhi could rethink its decision. Read more

    STRAIGHT FROM THE WTO

    NEW ON THE CTLD BLOG

    The Caribbean Trade & Development Digest is a weekly trade news digest produced and published by the Caribbean Trade Law & Development Blog. Liked this issue? To read past issues, please visit here. To receive these mailings directly to your inbox, please subscribe to our Blog below:

  • Caribbean Trade & Development News Digest – January 1-11, 2020

    Caribbean Trade & Development News Digest – January 1-11, 2020

    Happy New Year! Welcome to our first Caribbean Trade & Development News Digest for the year 2020! We trust you all had an enjoyable holiday season! We are happy to bring you the major trade and development headlines and analysis from across the Caribbean Region and the world for the first two weeks of 2020!

    There will be much to watch in trade this year so we look forward to you following the developments with us from week to week.

    HIGHLIGHTS

    The beginning of the year saw US-Iran tensions hit a boiling point. These tensions have simmered somewhat, and oil prices, which rose but not as high as expected, have since lowered in light of the ease in tensions.

    Global growth is set to rise by 2.5% this year, a small increase from 2.4% in 2019, as trade and investment gradually recover. This is according to the World Bank’s semi-annual Global Economic Prospects released January 2020.

    Regionally, on January 1, 2020, Barbados’ Prime Minister the Hon. Mia Amor Mottley took over the chairmanship of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) under that organisation’s rotating chairmanship system. Read more here.

    A three-day CARICOM workshop was held this to discuss World Trade Organization (WTO) issues. It was hosted by the SRC and WTI in Barbados and attended by ambassadors, technocrats and other high-level trade professionals.

    A significant oil discovery has been made offshore another CARICOM Member State. This time, it is Suriname. Read here. Also recall that Guyana is now an oil producing nation.

    REGIONAL NEWS

    Caricom raises external tariffs on pasta, cement

    Newsday TT: CARICOM’s Council for the Trade and Economic Development (COTED) has increased the common external tariff (CET) on pasta and cement for one year. It came into effect on January 1. Read more

    Food, drink labelling to change

    Barbados Today: Makers of packaged food and drink products may be required to have front-of-package nutrition labels by year end, Barbados TODAY has learned. But manufacturers are said to be concerned that having to revamp their labels could come at a major cost with business still slow in a tight economy. Read more

    Two faces of WTO emerge at meeting

    Barbados Today: Even as the world’s major economic powers abandon the global rules-based system in ongoing trade feuds, an international think tank’s advisor has urged officials here and in the region not to give up on the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Read more

    Walcott insists multilateral trade must benefit all

    Barbados Today: Multilateral trade must redound to the benefit of all, regardless of size. Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator Dr Jerome Walcott, made this declaration at a three-day CARICOM workshop held to discuss World Trade Organization (WTO) issues at the Savannah Beach Hotel, recently. Read more

    Poultry investor halts $7-$8 million investment over WTO uncertainty

    Eyewitness News (Bahamas): A poultry investor said yesterday it has put ‘on hold’ its $7-$8 million investment until the government makes clear its position going forward on the World Trade Organization (WTO). Read more

    Guyana rice exports valued at more than US$200 million

    Jamaica Observer: The Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) said it recorded a 20 per cent increase in revenue after exporting more than half a million tonnes of paddy, rice and rice by-products last year. Read more

    CARICOM needs united voice on global issues

    Barbados Advocate: If it has not been done already, the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) states have to devise a strategy for the global political and economic tensions and developments which continue to characterize the world in which we live. Read more

    CARICOM countries need to prepare for fallout of US and Iran situation

    St Lucia News Online: A sug­ges­tion that CARI­COM heads meet as soon as pos­si­ble, and come up with a strat­e­gy to deal with any pos­si­ble fall­out or dan­ger­ous sce­nar­ios, re­sult­ing from the re­cent dé­tente be­tween the Unit­ed States and Iran. Read more

    CARICOM heads chided for lack of sports investment

    Caribbean Life News: Caribbean heads of governments have been accused of not keeping pace with their sportsmen and women because the politicians are failing to provide facilities to support athletes consistent with their worldwide successes. Read more

    Will the EU care about the Caribbean after Brexit?

    The Voice: It’s not just Britain’s attitude towards its former colonies that may change with its geopolitical divorce. Lyndon Mukasa says the European Union’s position is also of growing interest. Read more

    UK expands its presence in Commonwealth countries

    Barbados Advocate: THE United Kingdom’s representation in the Commonwealth countries of the Eastern Caribbean has expanded over the last year. Read more

    Venezuela remains one of Guyana’s biggest rice buyers, despite no PetroCaribe deal

    Demerara Waves: Venezuela is Guyana’s biggest rice market, accounting for 34 percent or 177,682 tonnes of all that grain exported to several Latin American countries the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) said in a statement. Read more

    INTERNATIONAL NEWS

    Oil rises as US-Iran conflict eases, focus turns to trade deal

    CNBC: Oil prices rose slightly on Monday as investors shift their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal which could boost economic growth and demand. Read more

    Brexit: MPs give final backing to Withdrawal Agreement Bill

    BBC: MPs have given their final backing to the bill that will implement the UK government’s Brexit deal. The Commons voted 330 to 231 in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill and it will now pass to the House of Lords for further scrutiny next week. Read more

    Grassley pins blame for USMCA holdup on impeachment

    Politico: Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley on Friday blamed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for holding up passage of the new North American trade pact after she held off sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate. Read more

    IMO 2020: New Shipping Fuel Requirements Enter Into Force

    Hellenic shipping news: January 1, 2020 marked the implementation of the new sulphur oxide limit for shipping fuel imposed by the International Maritime Organisation under the MARPOL Convention, often referred to as IMO 2020. Read more

    US-China Trade War Seen as Boosting Vietnam Growth

    VoA: Vietnam has been a beneficiary of the China-U.S. trade war, enjoying a boost in services and exports that should drive economic growth to 7% this year, HSBC economist Yun Liu said last week. But she said the country remains vulnerable to economic risks including trade protection and inflation. Read more

    Brexit: EU ‘won’t be rushed’ on trade deal, says Simon Coveney

    BBC: The EU “will not be rushed” on a trade deal with the UK after Brexit, according to Ireland’s deputy PM. Boris Johnson says a deal can be agreed by the end of 2020 and has included a pledge in his Brexit bill not to extend any transition period to secure one. Read more

    Europe, Scotland and Brexit – what next?

    EU Observer: Last month’s UK general election will undoubtedly be remembered for the Conservative Party’s historic victory and the long-awaited clarity on Brexit. Yet the vote was not uniform across the UK. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) secured an even more emphatic result, taking 47 of the nation’s 59 Westminster seats. Read more

    Here’s how the WTO can help address plastic pollution

    World Economic Forum: Trade plays a central role in plastic pollution and in the global plastics economy. Amid impressive and multiplying efforts across the globe to address plastic pollution, however, the relevance of trade to the production, consumption and disposal of plastics has been underestimated. Read more

    What to Expect in the January 2020 Session of UNCITRAL Working Group III on ISDS Reform

    IISD: In January 2020, Working Group III (WG III) of UNCITRAL will convene in Vienna to work on possible ISDS reform. Read more

    STRAIGHT FROM THE WTO

    NEW ON THE CTLD BLOG

    The Caribbean Trade & Development Digest is a weekly trade news digest produced and published by the Caribbean Trade Law & Development Blog. Liked this issue? To read past issues, please visit here. To receive these mailings directly to your inbox, please subscribe to our Blog below:

  • 10 Trade Policy Developments to watch in 2020

    10 Trade Policy Developments to watch in 2020

    Alicia Nicholls

    Happy New Year! It is both a new year and a new decade, but several stories we were following in 2019 have spilled over into 2020. 2019 started off as a year of uncertainty and volatility with increased trade restrictive measures and slowing global merchandise trade growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows.

    Towards the end of 2019 some positive developments occurred and so 2020 does present some potential bright spots, such as the likely ratification of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Agreement, a now definitive date for Brexit and what appears to be an initial US/China deal.

    There are many things which are likely to impact global trade in 2020, including geopolitical developments, technological advancements, data privacy rules, climate change and the growing demand for more environmentally-friendly goods and services. All of these have the potential to either positively or negatively impact, inter alia, freight rates, supply chains and firms’ import, export and investment decisions, and on a wider scale, the global economy.

    While this is not meant to be an exhaustive list, here are the top ten trade developments we will be watching in 2020:

    1. WTO Reform

    The WTO is celebrating its 25th year of existence, but is also facing several challenges which threaten to undermine some seventy years of a rules-based multilateral trading system. Key this year to watch will be whether there will be a solution to the now defunct Appellate Body, and whether there will finally be a conclusion to the fisheries subsidies negotiations which again failed to yield an agreement last year. The US also continues to argue for a revamping of the current system of eligibility for Special & Differential Treatment. The 12th WTO Ministerial Conference will be held in Nur-Sultan, Kazahstan in June 2020, and will therefore be one of the organisation’s most important ministerial meetings to watch.

    2. Brexit

    After several missed deadlines for leaving the European Union (EU), the decisive victory handed to the Conservatives in the December 12, 2019 snap United Kingdom (UK) election meant that Prime Minister Boris Johnson was able to get parliamentary approval of his deal with the EU. The UK is now on track to leave the current 28-member grouping on January 31, 2020. Some political and economic uncertainty remains, however, especially with the stronger electoral performance of the Scottish National Party (SNP). Will the Scottish opposition to leaving the EU undermine the unity of the UK and will there be yet another Scottish independence referendum? What kind of post-Brexit trade agreement will the UK and EU eventually negotiate?  

    3. Trade Wars: US/China and Japan/South Korea

    After a year of continued touch and go negotiations and escalating tensions between the US and China, a ‘Phase One’ trade deal, which was announced in December 2019, will be signed January 15, 2020. The text of the Agreement has not yet been released, but it reportedly contains chapters on intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, unfair currency practices, trade expansion and dispute resolution. Under the agreement, China has agreed to increase imports from the US, and the US has deferred implementing the List 4B Section 301 tariffs which were to have come into effect on December 15, 2019 and decreased some of the List 4A tariffs.

    Receiving much less attention is the Japan-South Korea trade tensions which escalated in summer 2019 with fears that it could have harmed the global economy. The two Asian economic behemoths have had a challenging political history, but tensions flared up in July 2019 when Japan restricted the export of three chemicals (fluorinated polyamides, photoresists, and hydrogen fluoride) to South Korea. Japan is the major exporter of these chemicals which are needed in the production of semi-conductors and display screens – top export products for South Korea. Senior-level negotiations between the two countries were held in December and there appears to be some de-escalation in tensions.

    4. US Presidential Election

    Without doubt, the inauguration of President Donald Trump in 2017 saw a radical shift in the US’ trade and foreign policy. At this stage, it is unclear who the democratic nominee will be. However, trade policy is likely to be a major issue in the US election campaign, and even among the current democratic contenders there are some differences in their approaches to trade policy.

    What is certain, however, is that a Trump re-election in November 2020 would entail four more years of economic nationalism, a continued retreat from multilateralism, undermining of the rules-based multilateral trading system, and climate change denial.

    4. Regional Trade Agreements: USMCA, RCEP and AfCFTA

    After much uncertainty about the fate of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – the agreement which seeks to update and replace the NAFTA – a revised agreement was eventually signed in December 2019. It will need to be ratified by each of three parties in order to enter into force.

    Another agreement to watch will be the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) whose negotiations began in 2012. At the Bangkok Summit in November 2019, it was announced that the text has been agreed. Although India pulled out of the RCEP negotiations, it appears that the remaining fifteen parties are on track to sign the Agreement in 2020.

    Phase II negotiations on the operationalisation of the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will begin in 2020 and will focus on investment, competition policy and intellectual property.

    5. IMO shipping fuel standards

    The United Nations International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Low Sulphur Regulation comes into effect January 1, 2020. From this date, the IMO requires all shipping companies to reduce their sulphur emissions by 85%. The sulphur in fuel oil must be reduced to 0,50 from 3,50% for all sea-going vessels. This is an important move for reducing shipping emissions, although concerns have been raised about the possible freight rate increases.

    6. ACP-EU Post-Cotonou Negotiations

    The Cotonou Agreement – the partnership agreement which sets the framework for cooperation between the European Union (EU) on the one hand, and the countries of the ACP (renamed to the Organisation of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (OACPS) – is due to expire in 2020. The Cotonou Agreement was signed in 2000 and revised in 2010. Negotiations on a successor agreement will continue into 2020.

    7. Second Review of the EU-CARIFORUM EPA

    2020 would make it twelve years since the EU-CARIFORUM EPA has been provisionally applied between the EU and CARIFORUM countries. The second review on the implementation and impact of the EPA is currently on-going and consultations were held in 2019. The first EPA review in 2014 found that the EPA had not led to a significant increase in CARIFORUM exports to the EU, and there was still implementation work to be still done on both ends. The results of the second review will be important to gauging what additional progress has been made.

    8. Pending CCJ Advisory Opinion on freedom of movement

    The Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) will this year deliver its first advisory opinion pursuant to Article 212 of the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas (RTC) on the circumstances under which it is lawful for CARICOM Member States to “opt-out” of CARICOM Heads of Government decisions that involve fundamental objectives of the Community. Last year the Court held a two-day hearing where it heard oral submissions. The ruling will be critical to clarifying Community law on opt-outs.

    9. UNCTAD XV – October 2020

    All eyes will be on Barbados and the United Arab Emirates in October 2020 when the two nations will co-host the UNCTAD XV quadrennial. This will be a good opportunity for Barbados to help influence the trade and development agenda for the next four years, highlighting issues such as climate change and small States issues.

    10. COP26 Climate Talks

    2020 is a ‘make or break’ year for climate action. By most measures, the UNFCCC COP25 was a disappointment despite being the longest UN climate talks on record. Agreement on Paris Agreement Article 6 (carbon markets) and common timeframes, for instance, remains elusive and has been pushed back again to COP26. It should be noted that 2020 is the year when parties are expected to undertake their first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement and ratchet up their climate ambition by submitting more ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Climate change both impacts and is impacted by trade. As such, these talks will be key to follow.

    As usual, we at the CTLD Blog will be monitoring these developments. We welcome you to follow them with us by reading our weekly Caribbean Trade & Development News Digests. You can subscribe here to receive the mailings directly to your inbox:

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B., is an international trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

    DISCLAIMER: All views expressed herein are her personal views and do not necessarily reflect the views of any institution or entity with which she may be affiliated from time to time.