Caribbean Trade Law and Development

Category: Training

  • 2015 Year in Review for Caribbean Region: Triumph, Tragedy and Hope

    Alicia Nicholls

    2015 has been a year of both triumph and tragedy for the countries which make up the Caribbean region. This article reviews some of the major political, diplomatic and socio-economic challenges and gains experienced by the Region in 2015, many of which would have been covered on this blog throughout the year. It also speaks to the prospects for 2016.

    Political/Diplomatic issues

    General elections led to changes of government in St. Kitts & Nevis, Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago, while voters in the British Virgin Islands, Belize and St. Vincent and the Grenadines bestowed the incumbent governments with a fresh mandate.  In October Haiti held its first round of presidential elections, as well as local elections and the second round of legislative elections. The second round of presidential voting which was slated to occur on December 27, was postponed indefinitely in December.

    On the international stage, the election of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Canada was widely welcomed in the Caribbean Region as possibly heralding a new era in Caribbean-Canadian relations. However, the electoral defeat of President Nicolas Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) in the Venezuelan legislative elections in December has caused concern in the Caribbean about the future of Petrocaribe, a legacy of the late President Hugo Chavez under which Venezuela provides oil to participant Caribbean States on preferential terms.

    In international diplomacy, the Region had two major triumphs. The first was the historic election of Dominica-born Baroness Patricia Scotland as the first female Secretary-General of the Commonwealth of Nations.  The second was the conclusion by 196 parties of an international climate change agreement in Paris, which though not perfect, paid consideration to the interests and needs of small states.

    The catastrophic human and economic devastation inflicted by Tropical Storm Erika in Dominica in August and Hurricane Joaquin in the Bahamas in September-October, and the prolonged drought and water shortages being experienced across the Region are sharp reminders that climate change is an existential threat to the Region’s survival. Access to climate change finance will be critical in financing Caribbean countries’ mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite the triumph of small states at Paris, this is only just the beginning and a major hurdle will be the ratification of the Agreement by all parties, critically the US.

    Caribbean low tax jurisdictions’ battle against the tax haven smear made by metropolitan countries continued in 2015 after several Caribbean countries were included in blacklists by the European Union and the District of Columbia. At the 8th meeting of the OECD’s Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes held in Barbados in October, there was acknowledgement made that the Global Forum was the “key global body competent to assess jurisdictions as regards their cooperation on matters of transparency and exchange of information for tax purposes”. However, the fight is not over.

    On the international front, the border disputes between Guyana and Venezuela and Belize and Guatemala remain unresolved.  The Guyana-Venezuela dispute came to a boiling point after the announcement that Exxon Mobil Corp had discovered large oil and gas deposits in waters of the disputed region pursuant to a contract made with the Government of Guyana. While CARICOM countries have pledged their support of Guyana’s sovereignty, Venezuela’s more aggressive diplomatic engagement of the region in recent months has raised questions about where CARICOM states’ loyalties will truly reside; with a fellow CARICOM state or with a major financier. To further complicate matters, Suriname, a fellow CARICOM State, has restated its claim to a portion of Guyana’s territory. Indeed, the expeditious and peaceful settlement of both disputes will be important for the economic future of Guyana.

    While the US embargo of Cuba remains despite an overwhelming United Nations vote (191 to 2) yet again in favour of ending it, the United States and Cuba made significant advancements in 2015 in the quest towards “normalization” of relations. These included the easing of several travel and trade restrictions, the mutual re-opening of embassies in August and the announcement in December of an agreement to resume commercial flights between Cuba and US for the first time in more than half a century. The future resumption of air links between Cuba and the US is a welcomed development and instead of simply fearing the impact this will have on their US arrivals, Caribbean States should see this as an impetus to increase their marketing efforts in the US market and to improve the competitiveness of their tourism product.

    Socio-economic issues

    Lower oil and commodities prices have had a mixed impact on the region. They have been a blessing for services-based, import-dependent Caribbean countries struggling to overcome the lingering effects of the global economic crisis on their economies by slightly reducing their import bills and narrowing their current account deficits somewhat. For commodities exporting Caribbean states, however, the impact has been negative. Low oil prices have had a deleterious impact on the Trinidad & Tobago economy which is dependent on the export of oil and petrochemicals and was recently confirmed to be in recession after four consecutive quarters of negative growth.

    The tourism industry, the lead economic driver for most Caribbean countries, saw a strong rebound in 2015 with several Caribbean countries, including Barbados, registering record long-stay and cruise ship arrivals, buoyed by increased airlift and cruise callings and stronger demand from major source markets and lower fuel prices.

    However, the Caribbean continues to confront an uncertain global trade and economic climate. As recently as December, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, was quoted as stating that global growth for 2016 will be “disappointing” and “uneven”. Another arena Caribbean countries must watch is the troubled Canadian economy and the depreciation of the Canadian dollar as Canada is one of the major tourism source markets for Caribbean countries and an important market for Caribbean exports.

    According to an Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) report released in December, Caribbean exports are estimated to decline 23% in 2015, with Trinidad & Tobago accounting for the bulk of the decline. A bright spark is that St. Lucia, Grenada and Guyana signed on to the World Trade Organisation (WTO)’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, joining Trinidad & Tobago and Belize. The on-going reforms being made by these countries pursuant to the Trade Facilitation Agreement should help facilitate and increase the flow of trade in these countries. Barbados, Guyana and Haiti underwent their WTO trade policy reviews in 2015.

    The Caribbean region continues to be one of the most indebted regions in the world. Aside from high debt to GDP ratios, several Caribbean countries continue to face high fiscal deficits, wide current account deficits and sluggish GDP growth. Regional governments will have to continue measures to lower their debt, broaden their exports and lower their import bills.

    In September, the world agreed to the 2030 agenda for sustainable development in the form of the 17 ambitious sustainable development goals and their 169 targets. A critical factor for achieving these goals will be access to financing for development. Caribbean countries already face several challenges in accessing development finance owing to declining inflows of official development assistance, unpredictable foreign direct investment inflows and limited access to concessionary loans due to their high GDI per capita. Caribbean States should continue to vocalize their objection to the use of GNI/GDP per capita as the sole criterion for determining a country’s eligibility for concessionary loans.

    The alarming rise in crime across the Region remains an issue which Caribbean countries must tackle with alacrity not just for the safety of their nationals but for the preservation of the Region’s reputation as a safe haven in a world increasingly overshadowed by terrorist threats. 2015 was a year marked by an escalation in terrorism, with deadly attacks in Egypt, Kenya, Paris and Beirut capturing international headlines. Moreover, the news of recruitment of some Caribbean nationals by ISIL (Daesh as ISIL calls itself in Arabic) is an issue which Caribbean States must confront.

    The growing threat of terrorism has caused some concern about the security and robustness of the Economic Citizenship Programmes offered by some Caribbean countries. St. Kitts & Nevis revamped its programme and in light of the Paris attacks, the Kittitian Government announced in December that Syrian nationals will be immediately suspended from its programme. However, the fact that St. Lucia has forged ahead with the establishment of its own programme, accepting applications from January 1st 2016, shows that some regional governments strongly believe the gains outweigh any potential risks.

    High unemployment and youth unemployment rates continue to be major social issues threatening the sustainability of the Region, with consequential implications for crime and poverty reduction and political engagement.

    Prospects for 2016

    Without doubt there are several issues and challenges which confronted the Region in 2015 and will continue to do so in 2016. Moreover, since the “pause” taken years ago, CARICOM continues to face the threat of regional stagnation and fragmentation. While Dominica must be applauded for signing on the appellate jurisdiction of the Caribbean Court of Justice, it is only the fourth out of fifteen  CARICOM States to have done so nearly fifteen years after the Court’s establishment.

    However, in spite of these challenges the Caribbean Region has several factors still going in its favour, including high levels of human development, well-educated populations, political stability and a large diaspora. These are factors which it should continue to leverage but should not take for granted. No doubt a critical success factor will be the ability of regional governments, individually and together, to formulate effective and innovative solutions to the challenges faced, working towards the achievement of the SDGs, and their ability to mobilize domestic and international resources to finance these solutions. Let us also hope that 2016 will be the year where there will be a greater emphasis on increasing the pace of implementation of the Community Strategic Plan 2015-2019. The unity displayed by CARICOM during the Paris negotiations should be a reminder that the Caribbean is at its strongest when united.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. Please note that the views expressed in this article are solely hers. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • Securing better statistical data for better Caribbean lives: Reflecting on the data problem in the Caribbean

    Alicia Nicholls

    Statistical offices and associations across the Caribbean will join those around the world this coming Monday October 20 in celebrating the annual UN World Statistics Day which aims to highlight the importance of statistics in shaping our societies. This year’s theme “Better data, better lives” caused me to reflect on two things which caught my eye in the news in recent weeks. The first was the non-inclusion of Barbados in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2015/2016 due to the lack of available data. This point was raised by one of our veteran journalists in an article. The second was the description by the Director of the Caribbean Export Development Agency of the lack of data for the region in order to assess the competitiveness of regional exports as “embarrassing”.They got me thinking yet again on this vexing data problem in the region and the serious development implications of this status quo.

    The Caribbean’s data scarcity problem

    A report coming out of an ECLAC workshop in 2003 succinctly sums up the data problem in the region:

    Generally, the Caribbean countries have been described as “data poor” and in the absence of data and information, policies adopted and implemented have been arrived at on the basis of little or no data and less information. The result is years of wandering in the wilderness of development – talking of visions of the promised land of development without the ability to measure proximity to that goal.

    Years later, the data problem repeats itself. Too many reports mention data shortages in regards to the Caribbean; data is often either missing for some indicators or some years. Barbados’ embarrassing omission from the Global Competitiveness Index ranking in the WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report for 2015/2016 due to the absence of data is just one of the latest examples.

    Obstacles to data availability

    The ECLAC report quoted above notes that obstacles to data availability in the Caribbean region include the following:

    • Lack of financial resources, ‰
    • Lack of qualified personnel, ‰
    • Lack of institutional capacity, ‰
    • Lack of coordination between departments, ‰
    • Low priority on the political agenda

    As a researcher, I can certainly add more than my two-cents’ worth of frustration at the difficulty and in many cases, futility, of trying to obtain data from official and private sector sources here in Barbados and elsewhere in the region in a timely fashion. This is not to cast aspersions on any of these actors. After all, there are occasions where I have gotten good data and assistance from willing staff in government departments/agencies, private sector  associations and from businesses for studies I have had the fortune of working on. But sad to say, there are many occasions where this is the exception and not the rule.

    Central Statistical Offices (CSOs) are financed primarily by government budget resources and in some cases have been receiving declining budget allocations as cash-trapped governments in the region seek to minimise government expenditure. As a result, the human resource and finance constraints of CSOs often limit their capacity to collect data or to process data requests from the public in a timely manner. This often leads to long waiting times for accessing data.

    Outside of initiatives like CARICOMStats, there are few online national or regional statistical databases to draw on. The few which exist are often outdated or limited in the datasets available. The best sources for online data in the region still tend to be international databases. There are good data-rich studies which have been conducted which have been commissioned by public or non-state entities but these findings are often not published or are disseminated only to select stakeholders.

    Data scarce or data scared?

    This brings me to a question I often ask; is it only that we are data scarce or are we also data scared? In the Caribbean there is a possessiveness with which we guard data. There is still the archaic mentality among some public and private actors that power requires cornering knowledge, while data sharing weakens power positions. Due to the silo mentality that pervades many of our civil services, there is often limited data sharing between government agencies and there are instances of more than agency collecting the same data. On the flip side, data collection by government agencies is often constrained by non-cooperation by some members of the private sector and the public in providing data to these agencies in a timely manner. Many businesses in the region do not like to complete surveys and/or are extremely guarded about what data they provide to third parties, with or without a confidentiality agreement.

    Often times, therefore, the only way to obtain data in the region is if one knows a contact in a government agency or has a personal rapport with the business owner from which data is requested. Indeed, what needs to be recognised is that data sharing empowers all. It empowers the data sharer, the data gatherer and the ultimate end users (e.g. the policy makers), as well as the beneficiaries of any policies which the data has been used to support and develop. While there are legitimate data security concerns particularly in regards to sensitive data, this should not be used as an excuse to deny data for legitimate goals.

    So what’s the big deal anyway?

    The data situation in the region is one that has many sustainable development implications. The main end users of data are not just governments, but businesses, NGOs and the citizenry in general. The availability of reliable, accurate and timely statistics is needed for evidence-based planning, evaluating and monitoring of policies and programmes at all levels of government, business and civil society, which ultimately impacts on the society at large. For instance, how can we formulate effective poverty eradication policies if we do not have accurate data on the scale, nature and complexity of the poverty problem? How do we know that the targeted interventions to grow premature sectors of our economies are working if we do not have enough data on which to conduct a proper impact assessment? In many cases, as pointed out in the quote above from the ECLAC workshop report, we are making policies, decisions and formulating plans in the dark. How often have you heard public officials give reports on policies or problems but caveat them by saying “(recent) data is not yet available” or something else to that effect?

    What needs to be done?

    We in the Caribbean region know and acknowledge we have a data problem. What then are the possible solutions?

    • Firstly, we need to strengthen the capacity of our national statistical systems and primarily our CSOs. Our governments must provide CSOs with enough financing and qualified staff so they can effectively and efficiently carry out their functions of collecting, interpreting and providing us the public with timely, accurate and reliable data.
    • Secondly, a frequent complaint is that there are not enough people in the Caribbean region trained in statistical methodologies and technologies. We need not only to continuously train existing CSO staff in these methodologies and technologies but to encourage young people to get into the field of statistics. Statistics is often not seen as a particularly “sexy” or lucrative field like say law or medicine. But this can be changed. Many countries offer national scholarships for development purposes. Why not identify statistics as one of the areas eligible for these scholarships?
    • Thirdly, a big problem in our civil service, and our societies, is the endemic phenomenon of silos; various government agencies collecting the same data or not sharing data with each other. We need an integrated data collection and sharing approach among the various government agencies, coupled with greater linkages with the industry stakeholders. Key to this is more communication about the kinds of data needed, agreed methodologies and standards, and the mechanisms for reporting findings to stakeholders.
    • Fourthly, we must change the fear, skepticism and power attitudes many of our government officials and private sector actors have regarding data sharing through greater statistical advocacy. And while we are still on the topic of changing attitudes, our policy makers need to appreciate the importance of evidence-based (and not gut-based) decisions and evaluations.
    • Fifthly,it would be good to know how many countries have actually amended their statistical legislation to take into account the changes as proposed in the CARICOM Statistics Model Bill.

    This World Statistics Day 2015 themed “Better Data, Better Lives” should be a catalyst for our governments, CSOs, private sector and all our people to reflect critically on the importance of statistical data for creating better lives for us all in the Caribbean region. We know the data problem, the implications of it, and we know the solutions. These proposed solutions herein stated are not novel. They have already been posited by many others.

    Looking at the regional landscape there are several initiatives at the CARICOM level which are quite encouraging and are aimed at tackling the previously mentioned data challenges. Many of these initiatives are being done through technical assistance and capacity building programmes with the help of regional and international development partners. In his speech marking the 7th CARICOM Statistics Day 2015 on October 15,CARICOM Secretary General Irwin LaRocque urged member states to invest in improving their statistical production in order to assist with development. He also outlined the work of the Standing Committee of Caribbean Statisticians which has reportedly recently endorsed an action plan identifying the support needs of the region’s central statistical offices. In his key note address at the Second High Level Advocacy Forum on Statistics, in May 2014, the Hon. Dr. Keith Mitchell, the Prime Minister of Grenada, highlighted not only that statistics should be seen as the voice of the people but also reiterated the importance of a regional approach to statistical development and of ICT in the data revolution.

    The data shortage problem is on the regional agenda. What we need to do is to get serious about implementing these solutions at the national level and a big part of that starts with political will and cooperation from stakeholders.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B., is an international trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and international relations.