Caribbean Trade Law and Development

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  • Boosting island economies’ trade through education

    Boosting island economies’ trade through education

    Alicia D. Nicholls

    From May 27-29, 2025, I had the honour of participating in the Main Summit of the Global Sustainable Islands Summit (GSIS) in my capacity as an academic. Organised by Island Innovation, this third edition of the GSIS was co-hosted with the Government of the Federation of St. Kitts & Nevis. The event welcomed over 200 delegates, mainly from island states and territories from across the Caribbean and world, some coming as far away as the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu!

    In this article, I expand on some of the key points I raised as a speaker on the Day 2 panel “Identifying Opportunities to strengthen relationships between global island states”. I focussed on the critical role of education not just as a social good, but an economic asset indispensable for boosting trade both from and between island economies. To this end, I offer at least three interconnected ways in which education can contribute to boosting island economies’ trade: building human resource capacity generally, enhancing trade capacity and serving as a tradeable service.

    Building Human Resource Capacity

    For many small island economies, their most valuable resource is their human resource endowment. Poor in natural resources, countries like Barbados and Mauritius for example have since their political independence in the 1960s invested significantly in providing universal access to education, a key component of the development success these two countries have enjoyed.

    Investments in education not onlyfoment well-being, but also cultivate a well-educated population capable of advancing national development and adapting to global shifts. A well-skilled and educated workforce is vital not just for the local private sector which relies on a robust domestic talent pool, but also as a draw for foreign investors interested in finding the talent they need locally.

    As trade becomes increasingly digitised and technology-driven, the education systems of island economies and territories must evolve to nurture citizens who are not just literate and numerate in the traditional sense, but are technologically literate. An educational system responsive to these trends can drive the high-value growth that Caribbean island economies aim to pursue.

    Enhancing trade capacity

    Education not only contributes to trade competitiveness by building a country’s human resource generally, but also by building its capacity to trade and engage in trade policy making, more specifically.

    The University of the West Indies’ Shridath Ramphal Centre’s Masters in International Trade Policy (MITP) programme, now approaching its 23rd cohort, has played a significant and often understated role in developing a cadre of highly skilled trade professionals across the Caribbean region and even beyond these shores. Many of the MITP alumni sit in the highest echelons of governments (including within the cabinet of Barbados), international organisations, donor agencies, business support organisations and private sector firms. Indeed, on the panel on which I spoke at the GSIS 2025, three of the panelists (myself including) were MITP alumnae, and all women.

    Understanding trade rules and standards and conducting market intelligence are fundamental for Caribbean businesses to convert the market access they have on paper through the trade agreements and other trading arrangements Caribbean countries have into market presence. Expanding education in areas like sustainability standards, logistics and compliance will ensure the region can fully harness the benefits of trade and regional integration as it seeks to consolidate the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME).

    Education as a tradeable service

    Education is itself a tradeable service, and one in which Caribbean island economies already participate across the four modes of supply of service defined by the World Trade Organisation (WTO)’s General Agreement on Trade in Servicess (GATS).

    Under Mode 1 (Cross-border supply), Caribbean educational institutions increasingly offer online courses, some of which are taken by students abroad, effectively exporting education services. Under Mode 2 (consumption abroad), students from across the Caribbean travel between islands for tertiary education, while foreign students also come to attend offshore medical universities. Under Mode 3 (commercial presence), foreign universities, especially medical schools like Ross University and St. Georges University, have established physical campuses, resulting in a commercial presence/foreign direct investment. Under Mode 4 (temporary movement of natural persons), Caribbean professionals deliver lectures or courses physically on other campuses or other countries, thereby providing educational services physically in another country on a temporary basis.

    With certain countries tightening access to their universities for international students, this presents an opportunity for Caribbean universities to strengthen their value proposition not only to serve local students who might have intended to go overseas, but to attract more international students from the Global South and the Global North.

    Despite the allure of Global North universities because of their prestigious names and globally recognised faculty, Caribbean universities like The University of the West Indies, already have several advantages: a history of contributing to Caribbean development and well-recognised faculty in many areas, programmes which are tailored to small states’ and developing realities and promoting solutions grounded in our realities, cognisant of our regional history and development concerns, and a well-established track record of research in many areas like climate change, regional integration, development economics and cultural studies. Let us not forget that we are the region which has produced many thought leaders, including one of the world’s foremost development economists – Sir W. Arthur Lewis!

    In other words, Caribbean students’ options are not limited to Global North universities and we need a paradigm shift in the thinking that only Global North universities provide good quality education. Many universities here in the Caribbean have educated persons who are excelling at the highest levels in their field, including current and former statesmen, while there are many global South countries which offer scholarships yearly to our nationals to study at their universities. By supporting each others’ universities we would also be contributing to boosting south-south trade in educational services!

    Toward Knowledge Economies

    To maximise the role of education in trade, it must be embedded within a broader knowledge economy ecosystem. During the summit, I was particularly intrigued by the research shared by colleagues from ODI Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (RESI) on how SIDS can build robust knowledge economies. Their findings underscore the importance of prioritising innovation and the role of education in this. Building these ecosystems requires stronger linkages between universities, governments and industry, greater investment in research, intellectual property rights protection and support for entrepreneurship and start-ups.

    Ultimately, the role of education is not merely to promote trade per se. It is to ensure that the trade in which we engage is inclusive and sustainable and redounds to the benefit of our societies. Although it was not identified as one of the 7 pillars of St Kitts & Nevis’ Sustainable Island State Agenda (SISA), education will be key to achieving this road map set out by that government in its commendable quest to become the world’s first sustainable island state.

    Final thoughts

    If island economies are to boost their trade and promote a future grounded in sustainable growth, inclusion and transformation, education must be a strategic pillar and not an after thought. I am grateful to Island Innovation and the Government of St. Kitts & Nevis for hosting a very engaging and forward-looking summit and for the opportunity afforded to me to contribute to these conversations.

    Alicia D. Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade specialist and the founder of the Caribbean Trade Law and Development Blog.

  • Re-invigorating CARICOM–Canada Trade in a Shifting Global Order

    Re-invigorating CARICOM–Canada Trade in a Shifting Global Order

    Alicia Nicholls

    On May 5, 2025 I had the opportunity and pleasure of being a panelist on the Canada Caribbean Institute (CCI)’s webinar entitled “Canada-CARICOM Relations in the Trump Era”.  In this blog post, I share and expand on some of the reflections I made at this session around the theme of reinvigorating CARICOM-Canada trade in this current global dispensation.

    While the US remains an important partner for Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries, it is well understood in international trade and development circles that overreliance on any single market or partner increases exposure to geopolitical, economic and other shocks emanating in that partner. For the small island developing states (SIDS) of CARICOM whose economies are already highly open and vulnerable, diversifying trade and economic relationships is not a luxury, but a necessity. Diversification entails not only expanding south-south ties with Africa, China, and Latin America, as CARICOM countries have increasingly been doing, but also strengthening partnerships with long-standing allies like Canada. In this storm of uncertainty, Canada stands out as a stable and values-aligned safe harbour—a reality reinforced by the presence of a sizable Caribbean diaspora in Canada and a not insignificant Canadian diaspora presence here in the Caribbean, serving as bridges between us.

    The foundations of the Canada-CARICOM trading relationship stretch back to the colonial era when trade between the British West Indies and British North America (now Canada) involved an exchange of sugar, molasses, and rum for Canadian fish, lumber, and flour. That historical trade has evolved in structure and content, but the essence of mutual respect and cooperation remains. Today, our trade is anchored by the Canada Caribbean Trade Agreement (CARIBCAN)—a non-reciprocal preferential trade arrangement established in 1986 under which Canada grants unilateral duty-free access to eligible goods from Commonwealth Caribbean countries and territories. This covers most CARICOM countries’ exports to Canada, excluding goods in Harmonised System (HS) chapters 50-65 (mainly textile products) and goods subject to most favoured nation (MFN) tariffs of over 35%.

    CARIBCAN beneficiary countries or territories are Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, The BVI, the Cayman Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, St Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Notably, CARICOM member States Suriname and Haiti are not CARIBCAN beneficiaries.

    The arrangement is unilateral which means that beneficiary countries and territories are not required to reciprocate by lowering duties on Canadian imports, reflecting the agreement’s original development-oriented rationale: to enhance the region’s export capacity, promote economic development, and stimulate regional integration. The arrangement is subject to a World Trade Organisation (WTO) waiver, which was most recently extended in 2023 for another ten year period (until 2033).

    Despite this favourable arrangement, CARICOM’s trade performance with Canada has seen signs of stagnation. According to data gleaned from ITC’s Market Access Map, bilateral trade between CARICOM and Canada was valued at just US $1.2 billion in 2024. This is relatively modest when compared to CARICOM’s trade volumes with other partners. Notably, CARICOM enjoyed a trade surplus with Canada until 2019, but that dynamic has since reversed and Canada now enjoys a surplus with the region. CARICOM countries’ margin of preference in the Canadian market has declined as Canada has concluded agreements with other partners and its tariffs have lowered. Moreover, utilization rates of CARIBCAN preferences vary significantly across countries, with some utilising the preferences for significant shares of their exports and others failing to capitalize on the access afforded. CARICOM’s share of Canadian imports has declined, from 0.17% in 2014 to just 0.09% in 2024. Conversely, Canada’s share of CARICOM’s imports also dropped from 2.5% in 2014 to 1.5% in 2024.

    Digging deeper into the data reveals more about what is being traded and where opportunities lie. CARICOM’s leading exports to Canada include gold, aluminum, methanol, rum and spirits, root crops and seafood. On the flip side, Canada exports oil, wheat, iron ores, medicines, and meats to the Caribbean. According to ITC’s Export Potential Map, there remains significant unrealized export potential—estimated at around $1.4 billion. Gold alone, in its unwrought, non-monetary form, represents a good portion of this untapped potential. There may also be scope to expand exports of products like Caribbean rum, especially as Canadian consumers seek alternatives to U.S. products, including spirits and other alcoholic beverages.

    On the services side, tourism, commercial services and transportation services form the bedrock of the Canada–CARICOM relationship. Canadian banks have a long history in the region and for Barbados, Canadian firms are the major players in its global business sector. Travel remains one of the most vital service links, with Canada emerging as the region’s second-largest source market in 2024, sending 3.3 million visitors—a 4% increase from 2023, although still below pre-pandemic figures. With Canadians traveling less frequently to the US due to geopolitical tensions between these two countries, there is real potential for the Caribbean to capture more of this outbound market through targeted marketing, improved airlift, and creative offerings such as multi-destination packages. The education link is also noteworthy. Many CARICOM nationals study at Canadian institutions, bolstering ties through Mode 2 (consumption abroad) services trade.

    In addition to bilateral trade and services, Canada and CARICOM share values that manifest in their joint positions on the multilateral stage on issues like climate action, support for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and championing on-going and badly needed reform of the rules-based multilateral trading system. As global multilateralism comes under increasing strain, these alignments become even more critical.

    Some concrete recommendations

    The 2023 Canada–CARICOM Strategic Partnership, launched at the Ottawa Summit, marked an important milestone. This framework creates a permanent mechanism for structured dialogue and coordination—a platform we must now leverage more ambitiously. There are several immediate and medium-term actions worth considering.

    First, we need to better understand and address the reasons behind the low utilization of CARIBCAN by firms in beneficiary countries and territories and ensure evidence-based interventions to remedy this. This might involve empirical research in partnership with institutions like the University of the West Indies. Technical assistance to help exporters meet rules of origin, the simplification of customs procedures, and the creation of digital trade platforms or business missions could strengthen small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) readiness. As most CARICOM countries’ exports (except those exempted from the baseline tariff) now face additional 10% tariffs in the US market where they might have entered either duty-free or reduced rates of duty under the Caribbean Basin Initative (CBI) programmes, some CARICOM exporters will be seeking alternative markets for their products and Canada’s market of 40 million people and where most CARICOM goods can enter duty-free under CARIBCAN, beckons.

    Second, the question of whether CARIBCAN should be modernized or replaced with a reciprocal but development-sensitive agreement must be considered seriously before it is up for renewal of the waiver in 2033. While negotiations for a reciprocal trade agreement began in 2007, they eventually stalled due to divergent priorities. Today’s changed global landscape may offer a window to revisit the idea, possibly with a WTO-compatible trade and development agreement better tailored to CARICOM and Canada’s current needs.

    Third, Canada and CARICOM could benefit from updating their bilateral investment treaties (BITs) to reflect contemporary standards. Most are older generation BITs which prioritise investor protection over promoting and facilitating investment for sustainable development. In the absence of the negotiation of an FTA with a comprehensive investment chapter, Canada and CARICOM countries with which it has BITs should consider renegotiating their BITs and integrating development-friendly provisions, environmental safeguards, and mechanisms that encourage responsible investment.

    Fourth, greater attention should be paid to emerging sectors like digital trade, creative industries, fintech, scientific research and development, and digital health. These are areas where Canadian and Caribbean firms can collaborate meaningfully, and where mutual capacity-building could lead to innovation and job creation. I am always reminded of and inspired by the story of Barbadian-born scientist, Dr. Juliet Daniel, who is doing significant cancer research in Canada. This shows that the possibilities do indeed exist, especially given the strong ties between many Canadian universities and The UWI here in the Caribbean.

    Fifth, Canadian tourism is on a growth trend towards its pre-pandemic levels but could be boosted not just through more aggressive marketing in Canada, but through product innovation and better coordination across the region. Multi-destination tourism packages, for instance, could offer Canadians a richer Caribbean experience while distributing tourism benefits more evenly within CARICOM.

    Finally, the new Canada–CARICOM Strategic Partnership should also be used as a platform for closer multilateral coordination, including on WTO reform to strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system. Although the Liberal Party in Canada won the elections in the just concluded election, there is a new Prime Minister and it remains to be seen to what extent he will continue some of the work of his predecessor.

    In all of this, the Caribbean diaspora in Canada and the Canadian community in the Caribbean serve as vital bridges that can drive trade, investment, cultural exchange, and policy dialogue, and are important players and allies as we seek to strengthen this relationship.

    In a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical unpredictability and economic volatility, deepening our economic relationship with Canada is not simply a reactive response. It is a logical and strategic one. Canada is already a valued partner with shared values, historical ties and a demonstrated commitment to inclusive and sustainable development. But the current level of trade and investment does not yet reflect the true potential of this relationship. There is considerable scope for deeper growth.

    Let me thank the Canada Caribbean Institute for the great work it is doing on fomenting this relationship, including its advancement of thinking on forging deeper Canada-Caribbean ties in the backdrop of Trump 2.0, as well as some of the concrete policy recommendations it has highlighted in a recent blog post. In these headwinds of global uncertainty, we should view Canada as not just a buffer in times of crisis, but as a cornerstone in our efforts to build a more resilient, prosperous, and sustainable CARICOM. Strengthening this partnership is more than a policy option—it is a strategic imperative.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade and development specialist with over 15 years experience and is the founder of the Caribbean Trade Law and Development Blog.

  • Statement from Chair of CARICOM, Hon. Mia Amor Mottley on Impact of the Global Crises on the Caribbean

    Statement from Chair of CARICOM, Hon. Mia Amor Mottley on Impact of the Global Crises on the Caribbean

    (CARICOM Secretariat, Turkeyen, Greater Georgetown, Guyana – Friday, 4 April 2025)  –

    The transcript of the Statement from the Honourable Mia Amor Mottley, Chair of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) on the impact of the global crises on the Caribbean.

    I speak to all our Caribbean brothers and sisters today, not as the Prime Minister of Barbados, but in my capacity as Chair of the Caribbean Community.

    Our world is in crisis. I will not sugarcoat it. These are among the most challenging of times for our region since the majority of our members gained their independence. Indeed, it is the most difficult period our world has faced since the end of World War II, 80 years ago. Our planet faces a climate catastrophe that worsens every year. We have a cost-of-living crisis that has been bedevilling us since the disruption of supply chains, when the COVID-19 Pandemic triggered the shutdown of the majority of countries.

    Misinformation, disinformation and manipulation are relevant. The mental health crisis is causing hopelessness among many of our young people, and regrettably, crime and fear are on the rise. We’re fighting wars in the Holy Land, in Europe and in Africa. Countries are distrustful of countries and neighbours are distrustful of neighbours. The international order, the international system, my friends, is in great danger of collapse, and now we are on the precipice of a global trade war.

    Our Caribbean economies are largely reliant on imports. Just go to the supermarket or visit the mall or the hardware shop or the electronic store, and you will see that most of the things there are not produced in this Region. Many of those commodities are either purchased directly from the United States of America or passed through the United States of America on their way to the Caribbean region. That, my friends, is a legacy of our colonial dependence. Together with colleague Heads of State and Heads of Government, we have been working to diversify ourselves away from this dependence.

    We’ve already started to reap some successes, especially in the field of agriculture, for example, but we still have a long way to go. As we do this work, we have to be mindful that those recent announcements that have been made in the last few days will impact us very directly as a Region and as a Caribbean people.

    We are working and will continue to work to become more self-sufficient, but I want every Caribbean man and every Caribbean woman to hear me. This trade war and the possibility of a US $1 million to $1.5 million levy on all Chinese made ships entering US harbours will mean higher prices for all of us at the corner shop, higher prices at the supermarket, higher prices at the electronic store, higher prices for us at the shop, higher prices for us at the restaurant, higher prices for us at the current dealership and beyond.

    A lot of Caribbean people will think that these things that you are seeing on television news or reading about are far away and “They don’t impact on me.” A lot of people think “I’m just a farmer”, “I’m just a schoolteacher”, or “I’m just a mechanic.” They say, “I live in Saint Lucy in Barbados”, or “I live in Portmore in Jamaica”, or Kingstown in St Vincent, or Arima in Trinidad or Basseterre in St Kitts & Nevis, or San Ignacio in Belize.

    “These problems are far away from me, and they don’t impact me.” That is what you will hear them say. But the reality, my friends, is that if you buy food, if you buy electronics, if you buy clothes, it will impact you. It will impact each of us.

    My brothers and sisters, our Caribbean economies are not very large. So, we are, and have always been, at the whims of global prices. If Europe and China and the U.S. and Canada and Mexico are all putting tariffs on each other, that is going to disrupt supply chains, that is going to raise the cost of producing everything, from the food you eat, to the clothes on your back, to the phone in your pocket, to the car you drive down the road, to the spare parts that you need for critical infrastructure. That means higher prices for all of us to pay, and sadly, yes, this will impact all of us, regardless of what any of our Caribbean governments will do.

    We could lower our tariffs to zero in CARICOM, and it will not make a lick of difference, because our economies are small and vulnerable. This crisis, my friends, will impact not only goods, but it may also have a large spillover effect on tourism. We suggest that the region takes steps to sustain the tourism industry as likely worsening conditions and many of our source markets will have negative impacts on people’s ability to travel. We call on our regional private sector and the tourism sector to come together and to work with governments to collaborate for an immediate tourism strategy to ensure that we maintain market share numbers as a region.

    My friends, I pray that I’m wrong, and I’m praying that cooler heads prevail across the world, and leaders come together in a new sense of cooperation, to look after the poor and the vulnerable people of this world, and to leave space for the middle classes to chart their lives, to allow businesses to be able to get on with what they do and to trade.

    But truly, I do not have confidence that this will happen.

    So, what must we do?

    First, we must re-engage urgently, directly, and at the highest possible level with our friends in the United States of America. There is an obvious truth which has to be confronted by both sides. That truth is that these small and microstates of the Caribbean do not, in any way or in any sector, enjoy a greater degree of financial benefit in the balance of trade than does the United States. In fact, it is because of our small size, our great vulnerability, our limited manufacturing capacity, our inability to distort trade in any way, that successive United States administrations, included, and most recently, the Reagan administration in the early 1980s went to great lengths to assist us in promoting our abilities to sell in the United States under the Caribbean Basin Initiative. We will see how these tariffs will impact on that. That spirit of cooperation largely enabled security, social stability and economic growth on America’s third border in the Caribbean, or as we have agreed as recently in our meeting with Secretary of State Rubio, what is now our collective neighbourhood.

    Secondly, we must not fight among each other for political gain. Because my dear brothers and sisters, as the old adage  goes “United, we stand and divided, we fall.”

    Thirdly, we must redouble our efforts to invest in Caribbean agricultural production and light manufacturing. The 25 by 2025 initiative, ably led by President Ali, seems too modest a target now, given all that we are confronting. We must grow our own and produce our own as much as possible. We can all make the decision to buy healthy foods at the market instead of processed foods at the supermarket.

    Fourthly, we must build our ties with Africa, Central and Latin America, and renew those ties with some of our older partners around the world, in the United Kingdom and Europe, and in Canada. We must not rely solely on one or two markets. We need to be able to sell our Caribbean goods to a wider, more stable global market.

    My brothers and sisters, in every global political and economic crisis, there is always an opportunity. If we come together, put any divisions aside, support our small businesses and small producers, we will come out of this stronger.

    To our hoteliers, our supermarkets and our people, my message is the same. Buy local and buy regional. I repeat, buy local and buy regional. The products are better, fresher and more competitive in many instances. If we work together and strengthen our own, we can ride through this crisis. We may have to confront issues of logistics and movement of goods, but we can do that too.

    To the United States, I say this simply. We are not your enemy. We are your friends. So many people in the Caribbean region have brothers and sisters, aunties, uncles, grandmothers, grandfathers, sons and daughters, God children living up in Miami or Queens or Brooklyn or New Jersey, Connecticut, Virginia, wherever. We welcome your people to our shores and give them the holidays, and for many of them, the experiences of a lifetime.

    I say simply to President Trump; our economies are not doing your economy any harm in any way. They are too small to have any negative or distorted impact on your country. So, I ask you to consider your decades-long friendship between your country and ours. And look to the Caribbean, recognizing that the family ties, yes, are strong. Let us talk, I hope, and let us work together to keep prices down for all of our people.

    My brothers and sisters, there’s trouble in our Caribbean waters, but the responsibility each and every day for much of what we do and what much of what we grow must be ours, if we take care of each other, if we support each other, if we uplift each other, and if we tap into the strength and innovation of our common Caribbean spirit, we will see this through.

    Our forefathers faced tribulations far worse than we will ever do and yes, they came through it.

    My friends, my brothers and sisters, we can make it.

    We shall make it.

    God bless our Caribbean civilization.

    Thank you.

  • US ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs: What impact for the Caribbean?

    US ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs: What impact for the Caribbean?

    Alicia Nicholls

    On April 2, 2025, United States (US) President, Donald J. Trump, announced additional ad valorem tariffs of 10% on goods imports from all countries, including Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries, under his new ‘Reciprocal Tariff Policy’. In addition, some countries like Guyana, which have a merchandise trade surplus with the US, will face even steeper additional tariffs. This article discusses these ‘Liberation Day’ developments and what they might mean for CARICOM countries.

    The Reciprocal Tariff Policy

    Earlier this year, on January 20, 2025, President Trump signed a presidential memorandum outlining the broad contours of his America First Trade Policy 2.0, initiating an investigation into the root causes of the country’s “large and persistent” merchandise trade deficit. This was followed by a second executive order, the Presidential Memorandum on Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs issued on February 13, 2025, which ordered a review of non-reciprocal trade practices and their contribution to the U.S. trade imbalance. On April 1, 2025, the President received the results of these investigations.

    The executive order of April 2, 2025 entitled “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that contribute to large and persistent annual US goods trade deficits” introduces the so-called Reciprocal Tariff Policy as a response to the national emergency supposedly caused by foreign trade and economic practices.

    Using presidential authority pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), this policy applies an additional ad valorem duty starting at 10% on imports from all of the US’ trading partners, effective April 5, 2025 at 12:01 am (EDT). For countries in Annex I, these tariffs will increase to the country-specific rates outlined in that annex effective April 9, 2025 (EDT). For Guyana, the only Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country on Annex I, its goods exports to the US will be hit with additional ad valorem tariffs of 38%.

    These tariffs are to remain in place indefinitely, until the President determines that the conditions warranting them have been “satisfied, resolved, or mitigated”. Additionally, the President has the authority to increase the tariffs if the countries retaliate. A narrow range of goods listed in Annex II of the Memorandum is exempt from the ad valorem tariffs.

    These new ‘reciprocal’ tariffs aim to address what the Trump Administration perceives as chronic non-reciprocity in the US’ trade relationships, hampering U.S. manufacturers’ ability to compete in foreign markets and thereby threatening American jobs, manufacturing capacity, and competitiveness. However, the methodology used to determine these tariffs has faced criticism. If it is to be a so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariff, the initial thinking by many of us in the trade policy community was that the US would match the tariffs charged by these countries on US imports. Rather, according to financial journalist James Surowiecki in a post on X and later confirmed by economists and the administration, the formula for calculating the additional tariffs appears to involve simply dividing a country’s trade balance with the U.S. by the value of its exports to the US multiplied by ½ to arrive at the tariff rate. This has led to some of the poorest countries in the world being hit with disproportionately high tariffs based on this dubious formula. Moreover, tariffs have even been imposed on small uninhabited territories like the Heard and McDonald Islands, reiterating doubts about the logic behind the policy and on the more humorous side, giving rise to a raft of penguin memes on social media.

    Possible implications for Caribbean economies and firms

    However, this is no laughing matter as all goods exported from CARICOM countries to the U.S. will now face the additional 10% tariff, except for Guyana which faces a country-specific 38% tariff. This makes the costs of Caribbean products more expensive in the US, although there is the argument that they will also be competing with goods from other countries which might be subjected to even higher country-specific rates.

    The US has a large trade surplus with the region on a whole, and with most Caribbean countries, with the exceptions of the commodity-exporting countries of Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago. Indeed, the US remains a key market for several important Caribbean exports, including energy products like oil, ammonia and methanol, as well as rum, textiles and other manufactured and agricultural products. Since the 1980s most CARICOM countries’ goods exports to the US are eligible to enter duty-free due to the Caribbean Basin Initiative and its constituent Acts. This is not a negotiated trade agreement, but a unilateral preferences programme which has enjoyed bipartisan US support because it benefits US manufacturing as the biennial US International Trade Commission (USITC) reports on the operation of the CBERA have consistently shown.

    In her latest article, noted Caribbean economist Dr. Kari Grenade outlined a variety of ways in which these developments could impact Caribbean economies, including inflation as since the Caribbean imports a significant volume of US goods, including essential foodstuffs, this could lead to rising prices on our supermarket shelves. Analysis by Tax Foundation shows that the Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase of more than $2,100 US per US household in 2025. What does this mean for the Caribbean diaspora in the US? What does this mean for Americans’ travel to the region if US consumers will be paying more for everyday goods and will have less disposable income ? What does this mean for those countries in the Caribbean which depend on the US as a major tourism source market?

    What next? Firm and regional responses

    The tariffs have not yet come into effect, and it is likely that they could be halted at the last minute given the backlash and stock market volatility the announcement has caused. Nonetheless, it is imperative for firms and Caribbean countries to plan for them. For Caribbean exporters which rely on the CBI concessions, this may necessitate rethinking export strategies, possibly by shifting to non-trade market entry strategies to maintain access to the U.S. market, or by diversifying into new export destinations. For those Caribbean companies which rely on inputs imported from the US, they could face higher costs as US manufacturers pass on their increased costs to intermediate and end consumers. This means they will have to continue to diversify their sourcing. Some firms are already doing this.

    Retaliation is not a feasible option for CARICOM countries as we import much of what we consume from the US and already have high tariffs on imported goods. Where feasible, Caribbean countries could lower their applied rates on imported goods to help offset some of the pain consumers would feel.  Our other main options are diplomatic, preferably as a grouping. Caribbean governments have been engaging in diplomatic outreach to urge the US to reconsider the policy or at least provide carve-outs for small countries. In a recent article, Antigua & Barbuda’s highly respected Ambassador to the US, Sir Ronald Sanders, has called on the US to revisit these tariffs as they are against the spirit of the CBI and US-Caribbean relations, have human and economic costs and also imperil US strategic interests. Indeed, this policy will make the price of US goods more expensive and further incentivise importers in the region to source more regionally or internationally. Moreover, many Caribbean nationals have customarily gone to the US, especially cities like Miami and New York, to vacation and shop, contributing to the economies of those cities. Caribbean nationals will increasingly go to cheaper destinations like Panama.

    The ‘America First Trade Policy 2.0’ reinforces the need for us in CARICOM to accelerate efforts to expand our intra-regional trade and continue our trade diversification efforts. This is nothing novel and it is something we have long recognised. I listened to the speech of EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen earlier this week and found it noteworthy that the EU, a market of some 450 million people and with the economic heft to implement meaningful retaliatory measures also saw the salience of deeper integration and economic diversification to helping build its resilience and navigate this period of uncertainty. If deeper integration and diversification are important for the EU, they are doubly vital for us in CARICOM. After all, it is not just these tariffs we must contend with, but also the mooted fees to be placed on vessels which are Chinese made or are part of fleets which have a large number of Chinese-made vessels, which could impact many Caribbean countries.

    A broader concern is the pall this beggar thy neighbour trade policy by US as the world’s largest economy casts over the rules-based multilateral trading system and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which it was critical in establishing. While the multilateral trading rules are far from perfect, they have provided a predictable and rules-based framework where, inter alia, countries agreed to bind their tariffs for tariff lines at specific levels, which ensures some predictability for exporters. However, what the Trump administration is doing is contrary to the spirit of the multilateral trading system and will set off a global trade war as major economic powers react with their own retaliatory measures. As history shows, this will possibly have deleterious implications for the global economy, and just a mere five years after the world was hit by the worst pandemic in 100 years.  This latest move heralds a more unpredictable, uncertain, unstable and unilateral era in global trade relations, one in which strategic diplomacy, regional cooperation and diversification will be key for CARICOM countries to navigate.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade specialist and the founder of the Caribbean Trade Law and Development Blog: www.caribbeantradelaw.com.