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  • AI as an enabler and solution to financial crime: What I learnt from the Fintech Islands Conference 2024!

    AI as an enabler and solution to financial crime: What I learnt from the Fintech Islands Conference 2024!

    Alicia Nicholls

    In an ever more interconnected world, financial criminals are finding endlessly ingenuous and sophisticated methods of perpetuating crimes and laundering the proceeds of their criminal activity. Artificial intelligence (AI), which broadly refers to the simulation of human intelligence by machines, can be both an enabler of, but also an invaluable tool for fighting financial crime. It is, therefore, imperative for businesses to both understand the risks emanating from AI, but also the ways in which this transformative technology could help them protect themselves and their customers from financial fraudsters. I gleaned these insights from a fireside chat with finance expert, Eduardo Sanchez, Special Vice President and Head of Cyber & Intelligence (Latin America and the Caribbean) at Mastercard which I moderated during the recently held 2nd Fintech Islands Conference in Barbados on January 24-26, 2024.

    AI is already integrated in our daily lives

    To an increasing extent, AI is integrated into our daily routines to help improve our productivity and make our very busy lives much easier. Many of us professionals now use virtual assistants like Amazon’s Alexa, Apple’s Siri and Google Assistant to do mundane tasks, freeing up our time to do other things. Businesses are using AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants to provide customer assistance in a more efficient manner, and increasingly using AI-powered algorithms to analyse vast amounts of data to observe customer behaviour and predict market trends to assist in their business planning, research and innovation. On a wider scale, AI is having a non-negligible impact in fields such as ecommerce logistics, banking and finance, telemedicine, and preventive healthcare, to name a few. In a Blog post dated January 14, 2024, IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva called for a ‘careful balance of policies’ to ensure a positive net effect of AI on the global economy, noting that 40% of the global job market could be ‘exposed’ to the effects of AI. Indeed, there are also real ethical, privacy and other considerations emanating from the misuse of this technology by bad actors. These must be addressed if AI is to have a truly transformative impact.

    AI and financial crime

    AI can be used to imitate human sounds and images for the purpose of scamming and bribery. In March 2023, the United States (US) Federal Trade Commission (FTC) published a consumer alert warning of the use of AI tools to clone loved ones’ voices in order to scam money from their relatives, but also the use of AI-powered chatbots to perpetuate romance scams. Moreover, the release of fake AI-generated sexually explicit nude images of pop singer Taylor Swift on X (formerly known as Twitter) has generated condemnation from the White House and also prompted a bipartisan effort in the US congress to tackle this issue.

    Since machine learning algorithms can be trained to simulate human behavior, they can enable fraudsters to send out highly personalized and realistic phishing emails to unwitting persons. Take for example the spam emails we often receive purporting to be from financial institutions asking us to ‘verify’ our account data. Fraudsters can harness AI’s powerful analytical abilities to find multiple username and password combinations to hack into websites and accounts and also more quickly and efficiently analyse the sensitive customer data emanating from breaches in order to steal their identities and perpetuate scams. Moreover, AI algorithms could be used by money launderers to evade traditional systems of detecting suspicious transactions.

    AI as a solution

    While the above is quite scary, the good news is that AI is increasingly a powerful tool to fight financial crime. Regtech is becoming an important asset for financial institutions to help them assess risks, streamline and automate reporting and documentation procedures, thereby lowering their compliance costs.

    Mr. Sanchez pointed to the way that AI-driven algorithms are used by businesses like Mastercard, the world’s second largest payments platform. AI is used increasingly by businesses in fraud prevention to monitor historical patterns in a customer’s transaction behaviour and therefore raise a red flag if there is a deviation from this, triggering an alert for further investigation to determine whether fraudulent activity is indeed occurring.

    Another key take-way from my chat with Mr. Sanchez was that businesses need to consider both the risks but also the benefits AI could play in their cybersecurity efforts. Doing so not only ensures they are a step ahead of criminals, but also protects their reputations and their customers. This is important as many of us could name at least one prominent business or entity we know which has suffered a major data breach and the angst we customers felt at the potential of our sensitive data being used by the perpetrators for nefarious purposes. In an April 2023 blog piece, Barbadian-born internationally renowned cybersecurity expert Niel Harper called for the “responsible and ethical use of AI” and offered practical advice to businesses which are incorporating AI into their activities on how they could do so responsibly and ethically.

    Fintech Islands as a space for Fintech thought leadership

    Since its first iteration in 2022, the Fintech Islands Conference is fast becoming one of the ‘must-attend’ conferences in the Caribbean region for persons with an interest in fintech, allowing for a rich exchange of insights and ideas among industry gurus, regulators and policy makers from across the Caribbean and the world. I was grateful for the opportunity afforded to academics and trade policy specialists like myself who have an interest in regulatory issues to participate in these three days of interesting panels on a diversity of topics. My session on Day 1 with Mr. Sanchez of Mastercard was one of several in the AI track, but there were tracks on banking revolution, climate fintech, digital assets and web 3.0, payments innovation, modernising central banking, open finance, future of commerce and wealth building.

    This second successful staging of the Fintech Islands Conference is an important step in solidifying Barbados’ reputation as a space for world-class thought leadership and discussion of cutting-edge trends in this rapidly developing field. And why not enjoy some famous Barbadian rum, beaches, sunshine and hospitality while you are at it? I wish to extend heartfelt kudos to the conference’s visionary organisers for another informative, interesting and engaging conference and I look forward to the next edition!

    Photo credit: Matt Hamilton. Eduardo Sanchez (left), Alicia Nicholls (right)

    Alicia D. Nicholls is an international trade specialist and founder of the Caribbean Trade Law & Development Blog. She has a keen interest in foreign investment law and policy and global financial regulatory issues. Read more of her work at http://www.caribbeantradelaw.com.

  • 2023 Trade Year in Review and Year Ahead 2024

    2023 Trade Year in Review and Year Ahead 2024

    Alicia Nicholls

    Happy New Year to all readers! As is customary at this time of the year, we trade policy analysts like to reflect on the trade year that passed and the year ahead. Global trade trends are important for us to follow in the Caribbean given our countries’ high dependence on cross-border trade for much of what we consume. In this article, I reflect on the trade year that passed, discussing some of the major trends globally and in the Caribbean region and looking forward to 2024.  

    Trade Year in Review

    Slowing global trade growth but services trade resilient  

    In its just released Global Economic Prospects 2024 report, the World Bank described global trade growth in 2023 as “the slowest outside global recessions in the past 50 years”. That is in sync with the predictions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in its Global Trade Outlook Update (October 2023) and United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in the December release of its Global Trade Update. In its report, UNCTAD had predicted a 5% decline in global trade in goods by nearly US$2 trillion in 2023, including an underperformance in developing countries’ exports and a sharp decrease in South-South trade. Major factors cited by UNCTAD for this decline included reduced demand in developed countries, underperformance in East Asian countries and volatility in commodities’ prices. On the bright side, services trade growth remained positive and resilient in 2023, which UNCTAD estimates to have grown by $500 billion, a 7% increase over 2022’s levels.

    Rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions

    The US-China ‘trade war’ in semi-conductors has continued. Moreover, the 30th WTO Trade Monitoring Report on G20 trade measures issued in December showed that over the review period, G20 economies introduced more trade-restrictive than trade-facilitating measures on goods. However, the value of traded merchandise covered by trade facilitating measures remained greater than that covered by trade restrictive measures. The Russia-Ukraine war has had an impact on the volatility of commodities prices with food security implications. However, according to a WTO blog article by its chief economist Ralph Ossa published in February 2023, the Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on trade has been less than initially feared. 

    On-going global supply chain disruptions

    Global supply chains, which still have not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions and have been impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have been further disrupted by maritime traffic hiccups in two of the world’s busiest trade routes: the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. First, historically low water levels in the Panama Canal due to the worst El Niño event in recent history have reduced the number of ships which could transit through the canal daily, which caused backlogs. Second, shipping carriers have started to avoid the Red Sea, which provides access to the Suez Canal, due to Houthi attacks on shipping vessels. Delays or cancellations from ships having to divert to longer routes increase transit times and fuel costs for the carriers. Indeed, Vincent Le Clerc, CEO of global shipping giant Maersk, reportedly stated in a Financial Times interview that this “could potentially have quite significant consequences on global growth”. Increased shipping costs could lead to higher prices ultimately for consumers and delays could mean a longer wait for many of our favourite items on the shelves.  

    IFD agreement concluded

    In the trade policy world, WTO Members participating in the Joint Statement Initiative on Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) structured discussions announced their conclusion of an agreement text. These negotiations, in which over 110 WTO members are participating, aims to facilitate investment for the purposes of development. Whether that agreement will be adopted as a multilateral agreement or as a plurilateral agreement remains to be decided and is expected to be an agenda item at MC 13.

    Successor to Cotonou Agreement finally signed

    The successor agreement to the Cotonou Agreement, the Samoa Partnership was finally signed by some countries, although not without controversy. This is not a trade agreement but is an overarching agreement which sets the legal framework for cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the countries of the Organization of African Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) for the next twenty years. As readers may already know, trade between CARIFORUM countries and the EU is covered under the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). Provisional application of the Samoa Partnership Agreement began on January 1, 2024.

    Regional issues

    CARICOM Member States are reportedly working towards full free movement of persons by the end of 2024. CARICOM countries also continued their push for deeper African economic engagement and the 2nd Africa-Caribbean Trade and Investment Forum (ACTIF) was held in Guyana.

    Looking ahead for 2024

    Economic uncertainty

    The buzzword for 2024 is ‘uncertainty’, which has been the prevailing sentiment since 2020. We are still no doubt in a ‘polycrisis’ moment as major international organisations show in their forecasts for 2024.  In its previously mentioned report, the World Bank has predicted a further slowing in global growth this year to just 2.4%, “amid the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy, restrictive financial conditions, and feeble global trade and investment”. It called this the slowest half decade of GDP growth in 30 years. The World Bank noted as downside risks to its outlook the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict and the attendant disruptions to commodity markets, persistent inflation, slower growth and deflation in China, trade fragmentation, elevated sovereign debt levels and climate-related disasters. While trade is expected to pick up in 2024, the World Bank warned that this will be “only half the average in the decade before the pandemic”, and UNCTAD described its outlook for 2024 as “pessimistic”.

    WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference

    As usual, there is a lot on this year’s trade calendar for us trade nerds to look forward to. All trade policy analysts’ eyes will be on Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates which will host the WTO’s upcoming Thirteenth Ministerial Conference (MC 13) from February 26-29. The WTO is also likely to welcome its two newest members, Comoros and Timor Leste, both least developed countries (LDCs). As the WTO’s Director General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala eloquently stated in the press release welcoming Timor Leste’s finalization of its accession package, “[w]elcoming two members at MC13 will send a strong message to the international community on the relevance and attractiveness of this organization”.

    Mega-election year and implications for countries’ trade policies

    Dubbed a ‘mega-election’ year in the media, 2024 will see “more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries go to the polls” in 2024, according to the Center for American Progress. The electoral outcomes in these elections could set the tone for global economic and trade policy. For example, whoever eventually occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will shape the US’ trade policy for the next four years, including its approach to hemispheric economic cooperation and whether it supports the WTO-headed rules-based multilateral trading system.

    Climate crisis and trade nexus

    In January this year, scientists from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed that 2023 was by far the warmest year on record since record keeping began in 1850. This is something which we in the Caribbean certainly felt during August-November when daily temperatures were unbearably hot. Of course, with a worsening climate crisis, issues of resilience and sustainability are increasingly important in trade conversations. There is greater emphasis now not just on the impact of climate change on trade and vice versa, but how trade policy could support countries’ climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Indeed, the WTO’s Public Forum 2023 with its theme of “It is time for action” focused on green trade. Moreover, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 28th Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC COP 28) held its first ‘Trade Day’, the first time that an entire day has been devoted to trade at a COP summit. COP 29 will take place in November 11-22 in Azerbaijan.

    Meetings within the region

    The Caribbean region will play host to at least two important international trade and development-related meetings over the next twelve months. First, from May 21-24, UNCTAD and the Government of Barbados will host the first Global Supply Chain Forum in Barbados. Second, Antigua & Barbuda will host the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States from May 27-30. The West Indies and the USA will co-host the International Cricket Council’s Men’s T-20 World Cup 2024 which promises to bring a influx of tourists. It is an opportunity for the Caribbean region to showcase not just its signature hospitality, but its goods and non-tourism services to the world.

    Nearshoring and friendshoring trends

    The global supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of long supply chains, leading to an acceleration of reshoring and nearshoring over the past few years. Friendshoring – companies setting up in or sourcing more from countries which are political and economic allies of their home government – has also gained momentum due to geopolitical tensions such as the US-China trade war. Mexico has been a major beneficiary of these trends, eclipsing China to become the US’ largest trading partner in 2023. Several countries in the Caribbean region, particularly Jamaica, have sought to capitalise on these trends, leveraging their geographical location, infrastructure and talent pool as key selling points for US companies seeking to shorten their supply chains by sourcing regionally or to set up operations closer to home.

    Intra-regional travel and trade

    The year started with news that the Governments of Barbados, Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago have agreed to establish an intra-regional ferry service. This is a welcomed development as the twin issues of poor intra-regional connectivity and the high costs of intra-regional travel have long plagued intra-regional tourism and trade, undermining the spirit of regional integration as envisioned by the CARICOM project.

    Final thoughts

    2023 was a mixed bag and 2024 holds much uncertainty due to the multiple crises being faced. However, there are some bright spots as I mentioned. It will be up to our trade officials and the private sector – the people who actually trade – to continue to explore how we can turn some of these lemons into lemonade, that is, by turning challenges into opportunities for regional trade and development. With this, I wish all readers a happy new year. As usual, I look forward to following these and other trade developments with you.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade specialist and founder of the Caribbean Trade Law and Development Blog.

  • CARICOM and Canada launch a Strategic Partnership

    CARICOM and Canada launch a Strategic Partnership

    The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and Canada have launched a strategic partnership. Building on many years of political and economic ties between Canada and the Caribbean region, this new partnership is an outcome of their recently concluded Canada-CARICOM Summit. The Summit’s theme was “Strategic Partners for a Resilient Future” and was held in Ottawa, Canada, October 17-19, 2023.

    Please see below from the CARICOM Secretariat:

    1. INTRODUCTION

    Bound by an unwavering friendship, Canada and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) seek to formalize their vibrant and multi-faceted partnership, as natural hemispheric partners, with strong and lasting foundations built on deep people-to-people, historical and cultural ties, and mutual respect. Among the first to recognize the independence of CARICOM Member States, Canada remains steadfast in its trusted relationship with CARICOM over the years. This relationship, forged in the birth of new Caribbean nations, has evolved into an enduring strategic partnership amongst equals, based on a shared commitment to democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights and the rules-based international order, and which aims to advance common foreign policy, trade, security, and development priorities.

    As global actors, Canada and CARICOM join forces to navigate evolving geopolitical events, including our most recent engagement in the triple crises of COVID-19, climate change, and food and energy insecurity.  Together we commit to joint action on shared priorities such as climate resilience; building inclusive and sustainable economies; enhancing multilateral cooperation; and bolstering bilateral and regional security, including working together to help restore the security and stability of Haiti for the benefit of its people. We are also committed to working together to promote gender and racial equality and inclusion in the hemisphere, and to strengthening our already deep people-to-people ties. We are committed to achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and building strong, resilient and inclusive societies and economies.

    Marking the occasion of our first Summit to be held in Canada, we launch the Canada-CARICOM Strategic Partnership, to embed our close collaboration and cooperation on mutually agreed sectors.

    1. OBJECTIVES

    The Canada-CARICOM Strategic Partnership:

    • Serves as a permanent joint mechanism for regular dialogue, as well as for ad hoc consultations on issues of mutual interest, with responsibility for preparation, follow-up and implementation of joint actions, decisions and agreements between Canada and CARICOM.
    • Fosters the existing relationship between Canada and CARICOM through regular leader, ministerial and senior official level meetings to advance time-bound and agreed-upon roadmaps for action.
    1. STRUCTURE AND COORDINATION

    3a.General Coordination and Management

    Global Affairs Canada and the CARICOM Secretariat will co-lead the general coordination and management of the Strategic Partnership. Collaborative partnerships can be forged between competent institutions in Canada and relevant regional organizations in CARICOM in order to drive dialogue and implement initiatives.

    3b.       Structure and Frequency of Meetings

    The Canada-CARICOM Strategic Partnership is comprised of regular leader-level engagement to set overarching priorities and interests to advance and further deepen the partnership in addition to concurrent formal and ad hoc fora:

    1. Canada-CARICOM Foreign Ministers’ Group (CCFMG): meet annually to advance overarching priorities through substantive discussions on issues impacting the Caribbean region and the hemisphere, emerging trends and solutions to common challenges. Based on the agenda and discussions during the CCFMG, Ministers will set annual priorities for officials to guide the implementation of a Canada-CARICOM evergreen Roadmap for action. Foreign Ministers will report to Leaders through a joint letter from Canada’s Foreign Minister and the Council for Foreign and Community Relations (COFCOR) pro-tempore Chair of CARICOM describing engagement, progress to date and joint action to advance the Strategic Partnership.
    2. Canada-CARICOM Ministerial Meetings: ad-hoc ministerial-level meetings to advance specific thematic priorities, including on Trade, Development, Finance, Health, Environment, and Defence, etc.
    3. Canada-CARICOM Senior Officials’ Dialogue: the annual CCFMG meeting is preceded by the Senior Officials’ Dialogue, which serves as a preparatory meeting for Foreign Ministers’ substantive discussions on topline issues, and reviews progress and implementation of the Canada-CARICOM Roadmap.
    4. Canada-CARICOM Expert Dialogues: ad-hoc expert dialogues between relevant Canadian and CARICOM Institutions could be established to advance thematic priorities and actions listed in the Canada-CARICOM Roadmap, including bilateral, regional and multilateral initiatives. Expert groups would meet before and after major international summits, including – but not limited to – UNGA, the OAS, WHO, the Commonwealth, the G7 and the G20, to deepen coordinated action on multilateral priorities of democracy, human rights, and the rules based international order and amplify advocacy for hemispheric challenges. Expert groups would report on concrete progress at the annual Senior Officials’ Dialogue, to ensure effective and sustainable progress is being made on thematic lines of activity.
    5. Capacity Building and Technical Assistance: to deepen institutional linkages through training, knowledge exchange, capacity building and technical assistance initiatives, including considering secondments as a form of exchange program, where a CARICOM official is embedded in a federal organisation and vice-versa in the Secretariat or within a CARICOM Member State’s organisation.
    6. Special ad-hoc meetings: could be held at the request of Canada or CARICOM.
    1. LAUNCH OF THE CANADA-CARICOM STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

    Pursuant to the Co-Chairs’ Statement of the Second Meeting of the Canada-CARICOM Foreign Ministers’ Group, the Canada-CARICOM Strategic Partnership is hereby launched by Leaders at the Canada-CARICOM Summit in Ottawa, 18 October 2023.

  • CARICOM-US Trade and Investment Council to meet in Georgetown, Guyana

    CARICOM-US Trade and Investment Council to meet in Georgetown, Guyana

    CARICOM-U.S. Trade and Investment Council to meet in Georgetown
    (CARICOM Secretariat, Turkeyen, Greater Georgetown, Guyana – Wednesday, 11 October 2023):   The trade and investment relationship between the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the United States of America (USA) will come under review on Friday, 13 October when representatives of the two sides meet in Georgetown, Guyana.

    Agricultural sustainability, food and nutrition security, matters pertaining to the Caribbean Basin Initiative, trade in services, trade facilitation and good regulatory practices, are on the packed agenda of the Ninth Meeting of the CARICOM-United States Trade and Investment Council, at the CARICOM Secretariat headquarters.

    The two sides are expected to review the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), the U.S. trade preference programmes for the Region and explore ways in which to enhance the trade and investment relationship between the United States and CARICOM.
     
    As CARICOM accelerates efforts to achieve the goal of 25 percent reduction in food imports by the year 2025, the discussion on agricultural sustainability and food and nutrition security would highlight the use of biotechnology and other tools to promote climate resilience in agriculture, and CARICOM’s 25 by 2025 initiative.

    On trade facilitation, officials are expected to discuss avenues for streamlined procedures to facilitate exports and the participation of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in international trade.

    CARICOM and U.S. representatives would also examine ways to enhance engagement under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). This agreement rationalizes CARICOM and Unites States’ desire to promote long-term development, expansion, and diversification of trade in products and services. 

    The Meeting will be co-chaired by HE Felix Gregoire, Ambassador of Dominica to CARICOM and the OECS, on behalf of CARICOM and by Ambassador Jayme White, Deputy US Trade Representative on behalf of the US.