Caribbean Trade Law and Development

Tag: climate action

  • US Rejoining Paris Agreement: Important Step Forward but Giant Leaps Still Needed

    US Rejoining Paris Agreement: Important Step Forward but Giant Leaps Still Needed

    Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

    “And just like we need a unified national response to COVID-19, we desperately need a unified national response to the climate crisis because there is a climate crisis.” – Remarks by President Joe Biden Before Signing Executive Actions on Tackling Climate Change, Creating Jobs, and Restoring Scientific Integrity

    Alicia Nicholls

    On February 19, 2021, the international community warmly hailed the United States’ (US) formal rejoining of the Paris Climate Agreement, some 107 days after its withdrawal under the previous administration. The Paris Agreement was concluded and adopted on December 12, 2015 by 196 Parties at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris, France. It was the product of many years of efforts, but entered into force in record time on November 4, 2016.

    Under the Agreement, parties commit to taking actions to hold the global average temperature increase to “well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”, while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, countries are to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs), outlining their post-2020 climate actions to reduce their national emissions and to adapt to climate change. NDCs are to become progressively more ambitious every five years. However, for developing countries, while financing is needed to achieve these efforts, the gap between mitigation and adaptation needs and available funding remains wide.

    This article discusses the significance of the US’ rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement. It argues that after taking several steps backward under the previous administration, the US’ recommitment to climate action is a welcomed step forward for increasing ambition in global mitigation efforts. It further posits, however, that nations must make giant leaps in their climate response ambitions to avert the worst case warming scenario. All developed nations should ramp up financing for developing countries’ climate action efforts, especially given the COVID-19 shock wrought on the economies of many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

    The steps backwards

    As a global challenge, climate change requires international cooperation for corrective action to be meaningful. Under the Barack Obama administration, the US was among the parties which negotiated and signed the Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC framework. Then Secretary of State, John Kerry, now President Biden’s Special Presidential Envoy on Climate Change, famously signed the Agreement on the US’ behalf with his granddaughter on his knee. Under the Obama Administration, the US committed under the Paris Agreement to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025.

    Even before assuming office officially, President Donald Trump quickly announced plans to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, which he claimed was designed to kill American jobs. The Agreement’s withdrawal clause effectively bars any Party from withdrawing from the Agreement before a three year period from the Agreement’s entry into force for that party had elapsed, and such withdrawal would only take effect one year after.

    In the interim, President Trump rolled back or weakened over 100 Obama-era climate and environmental policies and regulations, covering anything from regulating vehicle to power plant emissions to endangered species. He also actively promoted the greater use of coal and other fossil fuels, and in his final days in office, he approved oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

    On the five year anniversary of the Agreement’s signing, President Trump ‘honoured’ his campaign pledge and made the US the only country to date to pull out of the pact on November 4, 2020, just two days before the US presidential election. Although US action on climate change at the federal level ceased under the Trump administration, some States whose mayors, Governors and CEOs signed on to the “We’re still in movement” thankfully continued to implement clean energy and climate-friendly reforms.

    The steps forwards

    The world breathed a collective sigh of relief upon news of President Joe Biden’s election win which, among other things, brought the assurance that the US would once again follow the science that anthropogenic (man-made) climate change was real and urgent global action was needed to avert the looming climate crisis.

    On his first day of office, President Biden signed a letter of acceptance of the Paris Agreement. On January 27, 2021, the White House issued a comprehensive executive order drawing attention to the urgency of the climate crisis and making some key decisions, such as the establishment of a National Climate Task Force and a commitment to make climate change both a national and US foreign policy priority. Moreover, by twinning climate action with his economic recovery plan, Biden’s proposed $2 trillion dollar stimulus aims not only to ramp up US climate action to protect the planet, but to create jobs and promote US economic recovery in an environmentally sustainable manner.

    The giant leaps needed

    President Biden has called for bold climate action and given the four year lapse in federal action, he may have to propose targets which are more ambitious than the Obama-era targets. But he will need congressional support and action if his climate policies are to have any durability as executive actions can only go so far and can be easily overturned by a subsequent president.

    Other major polluting nations will also have to step up to the plate. According to the World Resources Institute (WRI) reporting, ten nations account for over 68% of global GHG emissions. China ranks as the world’s largest polluter emiting 26% of global GHGs, followed by the US at 13%, the EU at 7.8% and India at 6.7%. In a TedTalk held on the same day as the US’ rejoining of the Paris Agreement took effect, Special Envoy Kerry called the upcoming COP26 talks to be held in Scotland, UK later this year the “last, great hope”. He also accused other major polluters of not doing enough to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, while noting that a global climate summit the administration will host on April 22 (Earth Day) will, inter alia, seek to increase ambition in advance of COP26.

    Although the COP26 was postponed from last year due to COVID-19, an ambition summit was held in December 2020 in which several parties pledged net zero targets. China’s President Xi in December 2020 restated China’s commitment to reach peak carbon levels by 2030 but upgraded China’s ambition level by pledging a carbon intensity reduction of over 65% on a 2005 baseline by 2030. Of note was that several SIDS were among those 75 countries which pledged new commitments at the Climate Ambition Summit. Barbados, Fiji, the Maldives and Nauru were among the countries which made net zero-related pledges, according to IISD reporting. The EU has committed to cutting net GHG emissions EU-wide by at least 55% by 2030 with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, while the UK pledged to reduce its GHG emissions at least 68% below 1990 levels by 2030.

    But are these efforts ambitious enough? The latest Emissions Gap Report (2020) called the current levels of ambition in countries’ NDCs “seriously inadequate” and would result in an at least 3 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels by 2100. It further cautioned that the 7% decline in CO2 emissions in 2020 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will “make no significant difference to long-term climate change”. Moreover, a recent empirical study by Liu & Raftery (2021) found not only that the probability of major polluters meeting their NDCs was low, but that for temperature increases to be less than 2 degrees Celsius, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1% to 1.8% per year.

    According to the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2020 was second only to 2016 as the world’s hottest year on record. Large chunks of the glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica continue to melt, threatening SIDS and coastal communities with increased sea level rise. While SIDS are most at threat from climate change’s adverse impacts, continental States can also be affected. In his speech on the signing of the Executive Order, President Biden referenced the record wildfires in the western US and more powerful hurricanes affecting the US gulf and east coasts. Over the past week, the US state of Texas experienced unbearably cold temperatures due to a severe winter storm, which caused both power and water outages and several deaths.

    There is also the other important issue of climate financing to assist developing countries, which often face capacity constraints and limited domestic finance options, in their mitigation and adaptation efforts. At COP15 developed countries committed to mobilise jointly USD 100 billion each year in climate finance by 2020, but financing has fallen short of the target. The US had pledged $3 billion to the fund under the Obama administration, but paid only $1 billion ($500 million in two batches) before he left office. President Trump ordered a stop to the remaining $2 billion pledged to the fund. John Kerry has, however, pledged that US will “make good” on its pledge to the Green Climate Fund.

    At the Climate Ambition Summit, several countries, including the UK, made additional climate finance pledges, but these are only useful once they are acted upon. Climate finance is especially important now that many fiscally constrained SIDS, such as those in the Caribbean, have seen dramatic revenue drops because of COVID-19’s impact on their tourism industry. This leaves these governments with limited funds to finance their mitigation and adaptation efforts. This is coupled with the ineligibility of some Caribbean countries, like the Bahamas, Barbados and Trinidad & Tobago, for concessional financing due to their classification as upper middle income or high income economies solely on an income per capita basis.

    Redoubling efforts at making climate financing available for developing countries will also be critical for their achievement of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the 2030 target. Although SDG 13 speaks specifically to climate action, countries’ achievement of many of the other SDGs, for example, no poverty (SDG 1) and access to clean water (SDG 6), can be jeopardised by insufficient financing for climate action.

    Important step forward, giant leaps still needed

    In closing, the US’ rejoining of the Paris Agreement is an important step forward for the global climate fight, after taking several steps back under the previous administration. However, as ambition levels in countries’ current NDCs remain woefully inadequate for achieving the Paris Agreement’s objectives and avoiding the worst effects of climate change, all countries must make a giant leap forward to reduce their emissions. Developed countries should also redouble efforts to step up climate financing for developing countries, many of which are now even less financially able to fund their climate action due to the COVID-19 shock.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade and development specialist. Follow her on Twitter at @Licylaw and read her commentaries on www.caribbeantradelaw.com.

  • COP25 climate talks: What’s at stake?

    COP25 climate talks: What’s at stake?

    Alicia Nicholls

    Caribbean representatives will shortly join their international counterparts in Madrid, Spain, from December 2-13, 2019 for the 25th meeting of the Conference of the Parties – the decision making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

    Climate change is the greatest threat facing the planet, and for many low-lying small island developing States (SIDS), coastal cities and communities, it is an existential one.  In recognition of the climate crisis, leaders from over 190 countries signed the historic Paris Climate Change Agreement in 2015 at the end of COP21 in Paris. Inter alia, they agreed to the ambitious but important goal of keeping global average temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts towards a 1.5 degrees Celsius ceiling.

    To achieve this goal, the Agreement’s framers recognised that the world needed to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as soon as possible.  However, with emissions still rising, countries’ levels of climate action and ambition remain too feeble to address the severity of the climate crisis. A significant increase in both at COP25 will be needed if the world is to avert the impending climate disaster.   

    World climate action/ambition still off-track

    The just released United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2019 showed that GHG emissions “continue on an upward trajectory and reached a record high of 55.3 GtCO2e in 2018”. The report found that G20 members, which account for 78 per cent of global GHG emissions, are collectively “on track to meet their limited 2020 Cancun Pledges”.  But, it noted that “seven countries are currently not on track to meet 2030 NDC commitments, and for a further three, it is not possible to say”. The report concluded that greater action by G20 members “will be essential for the global mitigation effort”.

    Making reference to the “large” emissions gap, the Emissions Gap Report further indicated that “in 2030, annual emissions need to be 15 GtCO2e lower than current unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) imply for the 2°C goal, and 32 GtCO2e lower for the 1.5°C goal”. This means the level of ambition in countries’ NDCs – their national commitments for reducing emissions and pursuing adaptation – remains too low to meet the Paris goal. As such, countries will need to agree to deeper emissions cuts in a shorter time frame.

    What will be discussed at COP25?  

    Even in its planning stages, COP25 has already faced and overcome two potential ‘crises’. Firstly, Chile assumed COP25 chairmanship after Brazil reneged on its offer to chair the event, shortly following the election of then incoming President Jair Bolsonaro. Secondly, weeks leading up to the event, Spain stepped in as the host nation after mass civil unrest caused the Chilean government to abandon hosting both the COP25 and an APEC trade summit. As such, the event will be chaired by Chile but held in Madrid. The President-designate of COP25 will be Her Excellency Carolina Schmidt of Chile.

    At COP24 in Poland last year, parties completed the majority of the implementation rules and guidelines of the Paris Agreement – the so called ‘Rulebook”. At COP25, they will continue deliberations to allow for the Agreement’s full operationalization. Key on the agenda to be resolved is establishing rules for implementing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement which pertains to market-based tools for limiting GHGs, such as international carbon markets.  Due to the sensitivity of this issue, the parties were unable to agree on ‘Article 6 rules’ at the COP24 and deferred the issue to COP25.

    Developing countries will, in particular, be concerned about climate finance critically needed for their mitigation and adaptation efforts. The parties at COP25 will also review the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts.   

    Importantly, a goal of COP25 will be ramping up global climate ambition in advance of 2020 – when countries have committed to submitting their revised NDCs and their long-term low GHG emissions development strategies.

    On this note, it would not be lost on participants that the US, the highest producer of GHG emissions on a per capita basis, has formally withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. While the US’ withdrawal will not take effect until November 2020, the Trump Administration has in the interim been reversing environmental regulations, including those enacted under the former Obama Administration.

    To date, the US is the only country to have withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. Other major emitters such as China (the world’s largest producer of GHG emissions on an absolute basis), the EU and India have not followed suit. Indeed, incoming president of the EU executive Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, plans to make the EU “the world’s first climate-neutral continent” by 2050 and has promoted a European Green Deal.

    Although the Trump administration has been reversing federal level environmental regulations, several US states, cities and businesses have maintained their commitment to climate action under America’s Pledge Initiative. According to the America’s Pledge Initiative, these represent “65% of the US population and 68% of the economy”. While this is some comfort, the potential absence of the world’s second largest emitter from the Agreement is a political setback for ratcheting up climate action at a time when the stakes are ever higher.

    Stakes remain high

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C published in 2018 found that human activity has already caused the earth to warm by 1 degree Celsius. Though a point five degree difference may sound negligible, the IPCC report found that even a 2 degree Celsius increase in warming could cause catastrophic impacts. The IPCC also more recently published two other special reports highlighting the real impact of climate change on land, and on the ocean and cryosphere.

    There has been a noticeable increase in the number of climate-related events and disasters internationally, be it droughts, flooding, record wild fires or faster than expected melting of the polar ice caps. These events have affected several countries around the world. But, it must be emphasized, while SIDS contribute the least to climate change (together accounting for less than 1% of global emissions), they are among the most negatively affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, rising sea levels are already negatively affecting our fragile coastlines.

    The recent IDB assessment on the effects and impact of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas estimated damages at $2.5 billion, and losses at $717.3 million, with most of the damage confined to the Abaco Islands and to a lesser extent, Grand Bahama. According to the IDB report, there were 67 confirmed deaths and 282 missing persons as of 18 October 2019. This is by no means an isolated incident. As sea surface temperatures increase, scientists predict more intense hurricanes.  

    Climate change has already caused shifts in weather patterns with implications for food security and access to water. Besides the human impact, it also threatens the tourism, manufacturing and agriculture industries, which are the economic building blocks, to varying extents, of most of our Caribbean economies.   

    Debate in silos

    On another note, the debate on climate change and trade is still to a large extent occurring in silos. The Paris Agreement does not touch on trade, which is not only a contributor to climate change, but can and has been impacted by climate change. Similarly, trade officials are not among the negotiators at climate talks.

    However, the World Trade Organisation, the global regulator of international trade, has since April 2018 hosted three Natural Disasters and Trade symposia, and will on November 29 host its fourth. With financing from the Permanent Mission of Australia to Geneva, three research studies focused on the macro-economic impacts on disaster-affected countries and the trade issues arising in the disaster response, recovery and resilience-building. The country studies were Nepal, the Caribbean (Dominica and St. Lucia) and The Pacific (Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu).

    Barbados’ co-hosting of the UNCTAD XV quadrennial conference in October next year is the perfect opportunity to keep climate action high on the trade and development agenda and to bring these two disciplines together.

    In conclusion

    Nearly four years after world leaders gathered at COP21 and negotiated and signed the historic Paris Agreement, levels of climate action and ambition do not match the severity of the impending climate crisis. Certainly, governments, businesses, households, and individuals all have their role to play in reducing their emissions footprint. But it is imperative for governments to set the policy tenor by enacting environmental legislation, and creating an enabling environment for the adoption of renewable energy and climate-friendly practices, products and services. With COP25 a mere week away, what the world needs right now is urgent and coordinated action to step up mitigation and adaptation efforts and accelerate the shift to a climate-friendly and resilient future.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B., is an international trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

    DISCLAIMER: All views expressed herein are her personal views and do not necessarily reflect the views of any institution or entity with which she may be affiliated from time to time.