Tag: economy

Alicia Nicholls

On May 5, 2025 I had the opportunity and pleasure of being a panelist on the Canada Caribbean Institute (CCI)’s webinar entitled “Canada-CARICOM Relations in the Trump Era”.  In this blog post, I share and expand on some of the reflections I made at this session around the theme of reinvigorating CARICOM-Canada trade in this current global dispensation.

While the US remains an important partner for Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries, it is well understood in international trade and development circles that overreliance on any single market or partner increases exposure to geopolitical, economic and other shocks emanating in that partner. For the small island developing states (SIDS) of CARICOM whose economies are already highly open and vulnerable, diversifying trade and economic relationships is not a luxury, but a necessity. Diversification entails not only expanding south-south ties with Africa, China, and Latin America, as CARICOM countries have increasingly been doing, but also strengthening partnerships with long-standing allies like Canada. In this storm of uncertainty, Canada stands out as a stable and values-aligned safe harbour—a reality reinforced by the presence of a sizable Caribbean diaspora in Canada and a not insignificant Canadian diaspora presence here in the Caribbean, serving as bridges between us.

The foundations of the Canada-CARICOM trading relationship stretch back to the colonial era when trade between the British West Indies and British North America (now Canada) involved an exchange of sugar, molasses, and rum for Canadian fish, lumber, and flour. That historical trade has evolved in structure and content, but the essence of mutual respect and cooperation remains. Today, our trade is anchored by the Canada Caribbean Trade Agreement (CARIBCAN)—a non-reciprocal preferential trade arrangement established in 1986 under which Canada grants unilateral duty-free access to eligible goods from Commonwealth Caribbean countries and territories. This covers most CARICOM countries’ exports to Canada, excluding goods in Harmonised System (HS) chapters 50-65 (mainly textile products) and goods subject to most favoured nation (MFN) tariffs of over 35%.

CARIBCAN beneficiary countries or territories are Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, The BVI, the Cayman Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, St Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Notably, CARICOM member States Suriname and Haiti are not CARIBCAN beneficiaries.

The arrangement is unilateral which means that beneficiary countries and territories are not required to reciprocate by lowering duties on Canadian imports, reflecting the agreement’s original development-oriented rationale: to enhance the region’s export capacity, promote economic development, and stimulate regional integration. The arrangement is subject to a World Trade Organisation (WTO) waiver, which was most recently extended in 2023 for another ten year period (until 2033).

Despite this favourable arrangement, CARICOM’s trade performance with Canada has seen signs of stagnation. According to data gleaned from ITC’s Market Access Map, bilateral trade between CARICOM and Canada was valued at just US $1.2 billion in 2024. This is relatively modest when compared to CARICOM’s trade volumes with other partners. Notably, CARICOM enjoyed a trade surplus with Canada until 2019, but that dynamic has since reversed and Canada now enjoys a surplus with the region. CARICOM countries’ margin of preference in the Canadian market has declined as Canada has concluded agreements with other partners and its tariffs have lowered. Moreover, utilization rates of CARIBCAN preferences vary significantly across countries, with some utilising the preferences for significant shares of their exports and others failing to capitalize on the access afforded. CARICOM’s share of Canadian imports has declined, from 0.17% in 2014 to just 0.09% in 2024. Conversely, Canada’s share of CARICOM’s imports also dropped from 2.5% in 2014 to 1.5% in 2024.

Digging deeper into the data reveals more about what is being traded and where opportunities lie. CARICOM’s leading exports to Canada include gold, aluminum, methanol, rum and spirits, root crops and seafood. On the flip side, Canada exports oil, wheat, iron ores, medicines, and meats to the Caribbean. According to ITC’s Export Potential Map, there remains significant unrealized export potential—estimated at around $1.4 billion. Gold alone, in its unwrought, non-monetary form, represents a good portion of this untapped potential. There may also be scope to expand exports of products like Caribbean rum, especially as Canadian consumers seek alternatives to U.S. products, including spirits and other alcoholic beverages.

On the services side, tourism, commercial services and transportation services form the bedrock of the Canada–CARICOM relationship. Canadian banks have a long history in the region and for Barbados, Canadian firms are the major players in its global business sector. Travel remains one of the most vital service links, with Canada emerging as the region’s second-largest source market in 2024, sending 3.3 million visitors—a 4% increase from 2023, although still below pre-pandemic figures. With Canadians traveling less frequently to the US due to geopolitical tensions between these two countries, there is real potential for the Caribbean to capture more of this outbound market through targeted marketing, improved airlift, and creative offerings such as multi-destination packages. The education link is also noteworthy. Many CARICOM nationals study at Canadian institutions, bolstering ties through Mode 2 (consumption abroad) services trade.

In addition to bilateral trade and services, Canada and CARICOM share values that manifest in their joint positions on the multilateral stage on issues like climate action, support for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and championing on-going and badly needed reform of the rules-based multilateral trading system. As global multilateralism comes under increasing strain, these alignments become even more critical.

Some concrete recommendations

The 2023 Canada–CARICOM Strategic Partnership, launched at the Ottawa Summit, marked an important milestone. This framework creates a permanent mechanism for structured dialogue and coordination—a platform we must now leverage more ambitiously. There are several immediate and medium-term actions worth considering.

First, we need to better understand and address the reasons behind the low utilization of CARIBCAN by firms in beneficiary countries and territories and ensure evidence-based interventions to remedy this. This might involve empirical research in partnership with institutions like the University of the West Indies. Technical assistance to help exporters meet rules of origin, the simplification of customs procedures, and the creation of digital trade platforms or business missions could strengthen small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) readiness. As most CARICOM countries’ exports (except those exempted from the baseline tariff) now face additional 10% tariffs in the US market where they might have entered either duty-free or reduced rates of duty under the Caribbean Basin Initative (CBI) programmes, some CARICOM exporters will be seeking alternative markets for their products and Canada’s market of 40 million people and where most CARICOM goods can enter duty-free under CARIBCAN, beckons.

Second, the question of whether CARIBCAN should be modernized or replaced with a reciprocal but development-sensitive agreement must be considered seriously before it is up for renewal of the waiver in 2033. While negotiations for a reciprocal trade agreement began in 2007, they eventually stalled due to divergent priorities. Today’s changed global landscape may offer a window to revisit the idea, possibly with a WTO-compatible trade and development agreement better tailored to CARICOM and Canada’s current needs.

Third, Canada and CARICOM could benefit from updating their bilateral investment treaties (BITs) to reflect contemporary standards. Most are older generation BITs which prioritise investor protection over promoting and facilitating investment for sustainable development. In the absence of the negotiation of an FTA with a comprehensive investment chapter, Canada and CARICOM countries with which it has BITs should consider renegotiating their BITs and integrating development-friendly provisions, environmental safeguards, and mechanisms that encourage responsible investment.

Fourth, greater attention should be paid to emerging sectors like digital trade, creative industries, fintech, scientific research and development, and digital health. These are areas where Canadian and Caribbean firms can collaborate meaningfully, and where mutual capacity-building could lead to innovation and job creation. I am always reminded of and inspired by the story of Barbadian-born scientist, Dr. Juliet Daniel, who is doing significant cancer research in Canada. This shows that the possibilities do indeed exist, especially given the strong ties between many Canadian universities and The UWI here in the Caribbean.

Fifth, Canadian tourism is on a growth trend towards its pre-pandemic levels but could be boosted not just through more aggressive marketing in Canada, but through product innovation and better coordination across the region. Multi-destination tourism packages, for instance, could offer Canadians a richer Caribbean experience while distributing tourism benefits more evenly within CARICOM.

Finally, the new Canada–CARICOM Strategic Partnership should also be used as a platform for closer multilateral coordination, including on WTO reform to strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system. Although the Liberal Party in Canada won the elections in the just concluded election, there is a new Prime Minister and it remains to be seen to what extent he will continue some of the work of his predecessor.

In all of this, the Caribbean diaspora in Canada and the Canadian community in the Caribbean serve as vital bridges that can drive trade, investment, cultural exchange, and policy dialogue, and are important players and allies as we seek to strengthen this relationship.

In a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical unpredictability and economic volatility, deepening our economic relationship with Canada is not simply a reactive response. It is a logical and strategic one. Canada is already a valued partner with shared values, historical ties and a demonstrated commitment to inclusive and sustainable development. But the current level of trade and investment does not yet reflect the true potential of this relationship. There is considerable scope for deeper growth.

Let me thank the Canada Caribbean Institute for the great work it is doing on fomenting this relationship, including its advancement of thinking on forging deeper Canada-Caribbean ties in the backdrop of Trump 2.0, as well as some of the concrete policy recommendations it has highlighted in a recent blog post. In these headwinds of global uncertainty, we should view Canada as not just a buffer in times of crisis, but as a cornerstone in our efforts to build a more resilient, prosperous, and sustainable CARICOM. Strengthening this partnership is more than a policy option—it is a strategic imperative.

Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is an international trade and development specialist with over 15 years experience and is the founder of the Caribbean Trade Law and Development Blog.