Caribbean Trade Law and Development

Tag: UK

  • UK releases ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age Strategy’; Pivots to Indo-Pacific

    UK releases ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age Strategy’; Pivots to Indo-Pacific

    Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay 

    Alicia Nicholls

    Coming hot on the heels of the publication of the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) annual President’s Trade Policy agenda and the EU’s new trade strategy priorities outlined last month, today the United Kingdom (UK) government released its own post-Brexit vision of ‘Global Britain’. The over 100-page report entitled ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy‘ comes after a year-long integrated policy review in which several post-Brexit threats and opportunities were identified.

    While there is not much that has changed fundamentally with regard to the UK’s foreign and foreign trade policy, there are some interesting nuggets both from the report and the speech Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivered before the House of Commons today outlining this new policy. Calling it the most comprehensive review of the country’s foreign policy since the Cold War, he emphasised that the aim was to make the UK ‘stronger, safer and more prosperous’ while standing up for its values.

    According to the Prime Minister, the UK’s international policy was a vital instrument for reinforcing the Union and securing the UK’s place as a science superpower and a hub of innovation and research. The UK will be more ‘dynamic abroad’ and more focused on delivering for its citizens. The new independent trade policy will ensure that the rules and standards in trade agreements will reflect its values. He also mentioned the new International Sanctions Policy. In all its endeavours, the US will be the UK’s ‘greatest ally’, a sentiment also found in the EU’s recently released trade priorities as well.

    Prime Minister Johnson highlighted the ways in which the UK has already sought to craft a path of global leadership. He noted the country’s chairmanship of the G7 and its exploration of a Global Treaty on Pandemic Preparedeness working through the World Health Organisation (WHO) to prevent another pandemic. He also pointed to the UK’s hosting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Twenty-Sixth Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC COP 26) in Glasgow later this year. The UK is also the first major economy to make a net-zero commitment. The UK, he said, will remain ‘unswervedly’ commited to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and to preserving peace and security in Europe. The UK’s approach will be to place diplomacy first.

    Notable on the trade front is the UK’s pivot towards the Indo-Pacific region. This includes a reaffirmation of its intention to work more closely with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) by becoming a ‘dialogue partner’ and to accede to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Given Britain’s status as a maritime nation, the Prime Minister said, it means that any crisis in the Indo-Pacific region or in those trade routes would affect it. The Prime Minister indicated that as part of the UK’s Indo-Pacific push he will pay a state visit to India next month and had also invited the leaders of India, South Korea and Australia to attend the next G7 summit.

    On the issue of China, a familiar theme emerges. Similar to the US and EU, the UK has identified China’s ‘increasing international assertiveness’ as both a ‘great challenge’ but also sees Beijing as a potential collaborator on areas of mutual interest, such as economic relations and climate change.

    On the homefront, the UK will seek to become a ‘Science and Technology Power’. Moreover, to counter what it sees as growing threats to its national security, the UK will remain a nuclear-armed power, increase funding for its defence and security and establish a Counter Terrorism Operations Centre. The National Cyber Force will be put in a new Cyber Corridor in the north. There will be a Cross-Government Situation Centre to improve the UK’s ability to respond to future crises.

    A major point raised during the debate was what appeared to be a cut in the UK’s spending on development aid.

    Prime Minister Johnson’s speech, the response by the leader of the Opposition and the ensuing House of Commons debate may be watched below:

    The report itself can be accessed here.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B is an international trade and development specialist. Read more of her commentaries here or follow her on Twitter @licylaw. All views expressed herein are her personal views and do not necessarily reflect the views of any institution or entity with which she may from time to time be affiliated.

  • What’s Happened in Trade since December 2020?

    What’s Happened in Trade since December 2020?

    Alicia Nicholls

    Happy New Year to all of our readers! Since our last Caribbean Trade & Development News Digest was published near the end of December 2020, some major trade developments have occurred. If you missed any of these developments, we will bring you up to speed with the top ones in this article!

    UK-EU begin trading under new trade arrangements

    The United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) received the Christmas present they both wanted. On Christmas Eve (December 24) 2020, political agreement was reached on their future trading terms before the Brexit transition period deadline of December 31, 2020. The deal averts the no-deal scenario, that is, trading on World Trade Organization (WTO) Most Favoured Nation (MFN) terms. Such a scenario would have caused, among other things, the reintroduction of tariffs. This would have been disastrous for both parties, and is a circumstance both sides sought to avoid at all costs, even as contingency plans were put in place in case of the worst case scenario.

    The new EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement covers not just trade and investment, but also deals with issues such as competition policy, fisheries, State aid, tax transparency, among other areas of mutual interest. January 31, 2021 marked the start of the EU-UK’s new trading arrangement. Of course, implementation of the new arrangements have not been without their kinks, including border delays due to the reintroduction of customs checks.  

    The UK-CARIFORUM EPA, which rolls over the provisions of the EU-CARIFORUM, now governs trade between the UK and CARIFORUM countries. The EU-CARIFORUM EPA, of course, remains in effect as between CARIFORUM countries and the remaining EU-27. It remains to be seen what practical impact the new EU-UK trading arrangement may have on CARIFORUM’s trade with the EU and UK respectively, including on supply chains.

    Trading under AfCFTA begins

    Originally slated for July 1, 2020, but delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, trading under the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has officially started from January 1, 2021. A special ceremony marking the Start of Trading was held to mark this historic occasion and the recording may be viewed here.

    The AfCFTA is a landmark trade agreement comprising 54 African countries, with an integrated population of 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP of US 3.4 trillion. It is second only to the WTO as the world’s largest trade agreement. While full implementation of the AfCFTA is not expected for some time, it is expected to help boost economic development on the continent.

    A recent PWC report highlights the ways the AfCFTA could assist African countries in their COVID-19 economic recovery. These include providing the opportunity to reconfigure supply chains, allowing for greater intra-regional sourcing of goods, such as pharmaceuticals, thereby reducing dependence on third countries.

    CARICOM-Africa relations continue to develop and it was announced that the African Union (AU) has offered CARICOM access to approved COVID-19 vaccines from a shipment the AU recently secured.

    EU-China reach agreement in principle on Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI)

    On December 30, 2020, it was announced that the EU and China had reached agreement in principle on the text of a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). While the text does not appear to be public as yet, the agreement is said to cover market access for EU and Chinese investors respectively, sustainability commitments and provision for State-to-State resolution of disputes arising under the agreement. The EU and China also commit to try to complete negotiations on investment protection and investment dispute settlement within two years of the agreement’s signature.

    US Section 301 investigations on Vietnam currency valuation and on DSTs

    In December, the US Department of the Treasury designated Vietnam as a currency manipulator. According to the USTR, Vietnam currently enjoys a $55 billion dollar merchandise trade surplus with the US, but a $1.2 billion services trade deficit. In the report on its Section 301 investigation of Vietnam’s acts, policies, and practices related to currency valuation, the USTR concluded that in their totality, they were “unreasonable and burden or restrict US commerce”, but stopped sort of recommending punitive tariffs.

    On the digital services tax front, the USTR has suspended retaliatory duties on French luxury goods, until further notice, which were scheduled to have taken effect on January 6, 2021. On another note, the USTR’s section 301 investigations on digital services taxes adopted by several other countries, including Italy, India and Turkey, found that these countries had placed “unreasonable or discriminatory and burdens or restricts U.S. commerce” but did not recommend any retaliatory action as yet.

    A new direction for US trade policy?

    On January 20, Joseph R. Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the US, and it is widely anticipated that this will herald a change from the outgoing administration’s often chaotic trade policy.

    In a key note speech delivered last week, Katherine Tai, the nominee for United States Trade Representative (USTR), provided some idea of the incoming Biden administration’s trade policy priorities, of which China and the USMCA remain foremost. Notable was that there was no mention in Ms. Tai’s speech of the WTO, including the current impasse on the appointment of a Director-General or the Appellate Body crisis. However, further information on the Biden administration’s trade policy priorities and disposition will be gleaned when the USTR releases its report on the President’s trade agenda, expected sometime in February.

    Without doubt, domestic issues, such as COVID-19 vaccine roll-out and economic recovery, are expected to absorb much of the administration’s policy agenda within the first 100 days. Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion-dollar stimulus package to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fall-out. Climate change is also one of the policy priorities and Biden has indicated that the US will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement.

    Despite the outgoing Trump administration’s limited cooperation with the President-elect’s transition team, fate appears to have dealt Biden some fortune on the legislative front. With both Houses of Congress controlled by Democrats (albeit a slim majority in the case of the Senate), Biden should have some breathing space to get his policy agenda enacted, at least for the first two years of his administration.

    US redesignates Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism

    The outgoing Trump administration’s State Department has redesignated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism (SST) for allegedly “repeatedly providing support for acts of international terrorism in granting safe harbor to terrorists”. Cuba had been delisted in 2015 under the Obama Administration as part of that administration’s attempts to normalize US-Cuba relations. However, the US’ illegal and unwarranted economic, commercial and financial embargo on Cuba, which requires Congressional action to remove, remains.

    The redesignation of Cuba as a SST is just the latest of several actions taken over the course of the Trump administration, which has seen a hardening of the US’ policies against the island nation. This included, for example, ending the suspension of Title III of the Helms-Burton Act. With regard to the trade implications of Cuba’s redesignation, which is extraterritorial in application, it penalises persons and countries engaging in certain trade with Cuba, bans defense exports and sales, and imposes certain controls on exports of dual use items.

    In a strong statement condemning this unilateral action taken by the administration, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) argued that “Cuba’s international conduct does not in any way warrant that designation.” CARICOM also unequivocally condemned it as a “further attack on the country adversely affects its international standing and its social, human and economic development”.

    US President-elect Joe Biden, who had been the VP under the Obama administration and part of the efforts at rapprochement, has been critical of the Trump Administration’s handling of Cuba affairs. It remains to be seen what will be his administration’s approach to Cuba policy.

    Post-Cotonou Agreement Text faces opposition by some EU Member States

    Towards the end of last year, the EU and the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS) announced political agreement on the text of a deal to succeed the Cotonou Agreement which was meant to have expired in December 2020. The post-Cotonou agreement is not a trade deal; trade between the EU and the OACPS is covered by the various Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). It is, however, the overarching framework for EU-OACPS relations and, therefore, covers EU-OACP cooperation on a variety of political and social issues.

    A Devex exclusive report released last week revealed that some EU states, particularly Poland and Hungary, expressed reservations with the proposed text, especially on the treatment of issues such as sexual education issues and migration and mobility.

    WTO Developments

    According to Bloomberg WTO reporting, in its final General Council meeting for the year held December 16-17, 2020, WTO members approved the WTO’s budget for 2021 and also decided that a Special General Council meeting will be held earlier this year to determine where and when the next Ministerial Council will be held. However, the US maintained its veto on the selection of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the new Director-General. It remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will maintain the US’ current objection.

    The African Union, Cuba and African Union’s proposal on strengthening the WTO for promoting development and inclusivity was also one of the agenda items. At the meeting, WTO Members were unable to agree on the proposal advanced by several developing country members on amending the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement to facilitate developing countries’ access to COVID-19 vaccines. This week, the countries proposing the amendment released their responses to WTO Members’ questions on their proposal.

    In other developments, India was the first WTO Member to have its Trade Policy Review for 2021. Costa Rica has requested WTO dispute consultations with Panama regarding measures affecting strawberries, dairy products, meat products, pineapples and bananas.

    Caribbean Community (CARICOM) developments

    From January 1, 2021, Prime Minister of Trinidad & Tobago, the Hon Dr. Keith Rowley, has assumed chairmanship of CARICOM under its six-month rotating chairmanship. He took over from then outgoing chairman, the Hon. Dr. Ralph Gonsalves, Prime Minister of St. Vincent & the Grenadines. Dr. Rowley’s statement as incoming Chair may be viewed here.

    CARICOM has already had a busy start to the year. According to a press release from the Community, the Heads of Government last week held their 13th Special Emergency Meeting of the Conference and under Prime Minister Rowley’s chairmanship. Among other things, they received an update on the Caribbean Economic Recovery and Transformation (CERT) Plan.  

    CARICOM IMPACS and the Small Arms Survey signed a Memorandum of Understanding to Reduce Gun Violence in the Caribbean, including support efforts to improve CARICOM Member States’ to prevent the illicit circulation of small arms and light weapons.

    The CARICOM Committee of Ambassadors also met later last week and among other things, reviewed plans for the Thirty-Second Inter-Sessional Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government slated for 23-24 February 2021. The Community Council of Ministers also convened to, inter alia, advance preparations for the Intersessional Meeting and to approve the CARICOM Secretariat’s Budget for the financial year 2021-22.

    The Secretariat has since the start of the year already released separate statements condemning the US’ designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism and repudiating any Venezuelan aggression in the escalating Guyana-Venezuela border dispute. The latter statement was in response to a statement released by the Maduro Government on January 7, announcing the creation of a so-called “Territory for the development of the Atlantic Façade” in the disputed Essequibo region of Guyana over which Venezuela has repeatedly claimed as part of its territory. An interesting development is that the Brazilian Government has expressed support for Guyana in the matter.

    In its statement demanding greater equality in COVID-19 vaccine dissemination, CARICOM has called for a global summit in the context of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) ACT-A Facilitation Council to discuss equitable access and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccines.

    Now you are all caught up! We look forward to continuing to follow these developments and more throughout the course of what promises to be a critical year for trade.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. All views herein expressed are her personal views and should not be attributed to any institution with which she may from time to time be affiliated. You can read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Overwhelmingly Rejected by British MPs

    Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Overwhelmingly Rejected by British MPs

    Alicia Nicholls

    With just over seventy days to go before the United Kingdom’s (UK) impending withdrawal from the European Union (EU) on March 29, 2019, British Members of Parliament (MPs) in the House of Commons voted overwhelmingly against the current Draft Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May’s government. With only 202 MPs voting in favour and 432 voting against the deal, the 230 margin of defeat represents the worst legislative defeat inflicted on a British Government in modern history.

    The vote, termed the ‘meaningful vote’, was highly anticipated. Originally scheduled for last December, Prime Minister May had postponed the vote at the last minute in the face of overwhelming opposition to the current deal, particularly the fall-back provisions on the Northern Ireland/Ireland Border – the so-called ‘backstop’. In the interim, Mrs. May unsuccessfully sought to obtain greater concessions from the EU in order to assuage skeptics, including those in her own party. However, the EU had been adamant that the  500-page Draft Withdrawal Agreement was not open for renegotiation.

    Indeed, the reaction by the EU to the outcome has been swift. In a statement released immediately thereafter, President of the EU Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, lamented that “the risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom has increased with this evening’s vote.” President Juncker further reiterated that “the Withdrawal Agreement is a fair compromise and the best possible deal. It reduces the damage caused by Brexit for citizens and businesses across Europe. It is the only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.”

    In her remarks after the outcome, Mrs. May lamented that the vote gave no indication of what the Parliament does support. She promised to continue her pursuit of Brexit as instructed by the British people in their referendum result of 2016. She has again ruled out a second referendum. However, her future appears to be in the balance. Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who has called for a general election, has immediately tabled a motion of no confidence which will be debated tomorrow. In December, Mrs. May survived a no confidence motion within her own party.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B., is an international trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • ‘No Deal’ Brexit Scenario Increasingly Likely: What does this mean for CARIFORUM-UK Trade?

    ‘No Deal’ Brexit Scenario Increasingly Likely: What does this mean for CARIFORUM-UK Trade?

    Alicia Nicholls

    The countdown is on. With 100 days to go before the United Kingdom’s (UK) scheduled withdrawal from the European Union (EU), and the ratification of the Draft Withdrawal Agreement less likely, both sides have this week announced contingency plans for a ‘No-Deal Brexit’. What do these recent developments mean for CARIFORUM-UK trade, not just at the policy level, but at the firm level as well?

    It has been a busy week in Brexit news. After delaying the House of Commons vote on the Draft Withdrawal Agreement which was scheduled for December 11th, UK Prime Minister Theresa May this week announced that the promised vote will be held the week of January 14, 2019. In the interim, Mrs. May will be seeking to obtain additional legal assurances from the EU-27 that the deal’s ‘backstop’ provision would not keep the UK in a customs union with the EU indefinitely.

    UK and EU Brexit Contingency Plans Underway

    However, in recognition of an increasingly likely ‘no deal’ scenario, the May Government also announced plans to, inter alia, put 3,500 troops on standby, allocate monies from a contingency fund to key government departments, and outlined a post-Brexit immigration plan.

    The EU, for its part, has sought to safeguard the interests of its own EU-27 citizens and businesses by implementing a contingency plan comprising 14 legislative measures and targeting key Brexit-vulnerable sectors. Specifically on trade, the EU noted, inter alia, that “all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK”. In a clear signal to the May Government, the EU was quick to point out that its contingency plan is meant to safeguard EU citizens foremost, that the measures do not replicate the benefits of EU membership, and that these will not mitigate all the risks of a ‘no deal Brexit’.

    Why is a ‘no deal’ more likely now?

    In an article I recently co-authored with Dr. Jan Yves Remy last week, we highlighted at least four scenarios for future UK-EU relations and analysed what each scenario may mean in turn for CARIFORUM-UK relations. Brexit represents the most epochal and seismic shift in UK trade and political policy in recent history. Brexit developments remain quite fluid, but recent developments evince the increasing likelihood of the ‘no deal’ scenario.

    EU leaders have repeatedly ruled out a return to the negotiating table. A renegotiated withdrawal agreement, therefore, now appears highly unlikely. Despite calls for a second referendum, including from former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, this option has been fervently dismissed by the May Administration, which remains committed to her slogan of ‘Brexit means Brexit’, although she had been part of the ‘remain’ camp before the referendum.

    Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has tabled a no confidence motion against Prime Minister May which, if successful, could change the current Brexit trajectory. However, despite her current unpopularity, there is no guarantee Mrs. May would be defeated or that her successor would abandon the Brexit plans. As alluring as it sounds, a ‘No Brexit at all’, scenario, therefore, at this stage still appears unlikely.

    Possible Implications of ‘no deal’ for CARIFORUM-UK trade

    Due to former colonial ties, the UK is currently most CARIFORUM (CARICOM plus the Dominican Republic) countries’ main trading partner within the EU and is also one of the main source markets for tourist arrivals and foreign direct investment to CARIFORUM countries. Given these historic and economic ties, CARIFORUM and the UK are currently in the advance stages of negotiating a roll-over of the concessions under the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement which currently define CARIFORUM-UK trading relations until the UK leaves the EU. While details about the roll-over negotiations have been sparse, this agreement has reportedly taken into account the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. It is in the ‘no deal’ scenario that this roll-over arrangement has its most utility as it at least assures CARIFORUM traders of continued preferential market access to the UK if the latter leaves the EU without a transition deal in place.

    However, while the EPA ‘roll-over’ preserves the market access status quo, it does not mitigate all the risks of a ‘no deal Brexit’. Without a transition agreement in place, UK goods (and imported goods entering through UK ports of entry) will immediately after March 29, 2019 no longer have free circulation within the EU single market and will revert to World Trade Organisation Most Favoured Nation (MFN) levels – that is, they will be subject to EU import duties and non-preferential rules of origin. This, therefore, takes away the incentive for CARIFORUM firms which, due to a shared language and customs, would have used the UK as a ‘springboard’ for entering the wider EU market by establishing a commercial presence in the UK.

    Moreover, because many CARIFORUM countries’ air and sea links to continental Europe are still mainly through the UK, CARIFORUM firms will have to consider what impact these new ‘no deal’ arrangements (such as reimposed customs duties and customs checks) may have on their trade with both UK and EU partners and on their supply chains. New arrangements for aviation and haulage between the EU and UK will also add delays and increased freighting costs. These higher costs will have to be borne in mind in business planning, pricing and other decisions.

    One of the biggest threats of a ‘no deal’ Brexit is the volatility of sterling which has seen large drops in value whenever unfavourable news hits the market. If not already done, currency risks will have to be taken into account by CARIFORUM firms when negotiating commercial terms with UK trading partners and in their own risk assessments.

    With regard to tourism, the reduced spending power of UK visitors to the region, or any downturn in the UK economy due to fall-out from a ‘no deal’ Brexit’, would adversely impact those CARIFORUM countries where UK tourists account for a sizable market share or where UK purchasers account for sizable real estate purchases. Changes in UK-EU aviation arrangements may also make the cost of travel to the region more expensive for those continental European travellers which have to transit through the UK to reach the Caribbean (those which do not have the benefit of direct flights). As such, it would be beneficial for CARIFORUM countries to expand their direct air and sea links with continental Europe.

    In spite of the above, it is not all doom and gloom. There is the opportunity for CARIFORUM to redefine CARIFORUM-UK trading relations by going beyond the mere EPA roll-over and negotiating a new free trade agreement in the future with the new ‘Global Britain’ the May Administration seeks to advocate. It also gives CARIFORUM countries an additional nudge to expand their trading relations with the EU-27 themselves by making better use of the EPA, which is currently underutilised. This is also an opportune time as CARIFORUM, as part of the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) grouping, is in the process of renegotiating a post-Cotonou arrangement with the EU.

    The takeaway is that the uncertainty continues! With all the news about Brexit, it is not surprising that some firms or persons may experience ‘Brexit fatigue’. It is, however, incumbent on regional firms which currently do business with, or are seeking to conduct business with those in the UK to keep abreast of these developments and to make the necessary contingency plans to ensure minimal disruption to their trading.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B., is an international trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.