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  • Caribbean Trade and Development Digest: October 30-November 5, 2016

    These are some of the major trade and development headlines and analysis across the Caribbean region and the world for the week of October 30-November 5, 2016. 

    For past issues, please visit here.

    REGIONAL

    Dominican Republic certified against freight risks, illegal trade 

    DominicanToday: The international certification issued by the Business Alliance for Secure Commerce (BASC) to the Dominican Republic establishes a robust system of control and security management in companies, based on risks and proactive controls to mitigate contamination of freight and illegal trade. Read more

    Dominicans can benefit from Brexit’s trade possibilities

    DominicanToday: UK Minister for Europe and the Americas, Alan Duncan on Friday headed a breakfast hosted  by the British Chamber of Commerce of the Dominican Republic (Britcham) where he analyzed the new post Brexit opportunities his country offers the world. Read more 

    Barbados workshop to equip statisticians to better monitor CSME implementation

    JamaicaObserver: Barbados will host a two-day workshop next week aimed at better equipping statisticians from across the region to measure and monitor effectively the implementation of the Caricom Single Market and Economy (CSME). Read more

    INTERNATIONAL

    Brexit Court Defeat for UK Government

    BBC: Parliament must vote on whether the UK can start the process of leaving the EU, the High Court has ruled.This means the government cannot trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty – beginning formal exit negotiations with the EU – on its own. Read more

    Paris Climate deal enters into force

    BBC: The Paris agreement on climate change has come into force. Governments have agreed to keep the global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – and preferably 1.5 degrees. Read more

    Brexit Ruling and BOE decision send pound surging

    FinancialTimes: The pound soared to a four-week high on Thursday after the High Court ruled the government must seek parliamentary approval for triggering Article 50 and the Bank of England said the post-referendum economy was “notably stronger” than it expected. Read more

    Will a new model investment treaty boost India’s FDI?

    East Asia Forum: India’s investment regime is under stress from its new bilateral investment treaty (BIT) framework. Spurred by a flood of claims from foreign investors against India in the recent years, the new BIT framework was approved by the cabinet in December 2015 after a four-year review. Read more 

    PM vows to carry out Brexit

    BBC: Theresa May has vowed to carry out Brexit “in full” despite the High Court ruling on leaving the EU. The prime minister said the government needed to “get on with the job” and MPs should “accept” the referendum result. Read more

    Japan Starts Process of Ratifying TPP

    StraitTimes: Japan set the cogs in motion for the ratification of the 12-nation Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade treaty, with the Bill clearing its first hurdle at a special parliamentary committee on Friday. Read more 

    Director-General selection process launched; Azevedo willing to serve 2nd term

    WTO: General Council Chairperson, Ambassador Harald Neple of Norway, informed WTO members on 3 November of the process to appoint the WTO Director-General after the current term of office comes to an end on 31 August 2017. The incumbent Director-General, Roberto Azevêdo, confirmed his willingness to serve a second term in the role. Read more 

    The White House is hoping this new argument for a trade deal with Asia will finally work

    WashingtonPost: The White House on Thursday estimated that more than $5 billion in U.S. exports and millions of jobs could be threatened if Japan strikes a new trade deal with China without a similar agreement in place with the United States, part of the administration’s last-ditch efforts to push President Obama’s politically embattled plan to deepen economic ties with Asia. Read more 

    Kenya, Tanzania Aim to Reset Economic Partnership

    VOA: Tanzania’s president is making his first state visit to Kenya since taking office last October, in a bid to improve relations strained by economic competition. Read more

    WTO issues new editions of Trade Profiles and World Tariff Profiles

    WTO: The WTO issued on 2 November new expanded editions of two of its annual statistical publications, Trade Profiles and World Tariff Profiles. Read more 

    Sri Lanka has its trade policy review

    WTO: The fourth review of the trade policies and practices of Sri Lanka takes place on 1 and 3 November 2016. The basis for the review is a report by the WTO Secretariat and a report by the Government of Sri Lanka. Read more 

    UK PM Seeks to Boost Trade Ties with India before Brexit

    Reuters: British Prime Minister Theresa May will use her first bilateral trade trip since taking office to try to boost ties with India before leaving the European Union.Read more

    Colombia President welcomes Brexit trade prospects

    BBC: Trade between Colombia and the UK has the potential to grow after Brexit, the country’s president has suggested.Juan Manuel Santos said a new agreement could be better than Colombia’s current free trade deal with the EU.Read more

    Iceland Ratifies Trade Facilitation Agreement

    WTO: Iceland has ratified the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), becoming the 96th member of the WTO to do so. Read more

    NEW ON CARIBBEAN TRADE LAW & DEVELOPMENT

    Paris Climate Change Agreement Enters into Force: What Next?

    Brexit High Court Ruling: What does it mean?

  • Brexit High Court Ruling: What does it Mean?

    Brexit High Court Ruling: What does it Mean?

    Alicia Nicholls

    In a landmark decision handed down today, the London-based UK High Court in R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, has held that the Theresa May-led UK Government cannot begin the formal process of leaving the European Union (EU)  without first seeking parliamentary approval.

    As a bit of context, on June 23, 2016 52% of the British electorate voted for the UK to withdraw from the EU. However, for Brexit (British exit from the EU) to formally begin, notification of such intention by the UK must be made pursuant to Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (Lisbon Treaty). This came into effect in 2009 and  gives an EU member state the express right to withdraw from the 28-member bloc in accordance with its own constitutional requirements and with the provisions contained in said Article. A useful synopsis of the Brexit process can be found here.

    EU leaders have stated that they do not intend to begin negotiations with the UK until Article 50 is triggered. This probably explains why British Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated that she wishes to make the Article 50 notification by March 2017.

    This latest chapter in the Brexit saga is an unexpected bump in the road for the conservative government. While Mrs.May had been part of the “Remain” camp while serving as Home Secretary in the cabinet of then Prime Minister David Cameron, she has since upon becoming Prime Minister stated in pellucid language that she intends to respect the will of the British people. She has famously stated that  “Brexit means Brexit”.

    The Issue

    Simply stated, the central issue before the High Court was whether under UK constitutional law, the Crown (as embodied by the executive) has prerogative power to make a notification pursuant to Article 50. Prerogative powers, also known as the Royal Prerogative, are residual legal powers which are vested in the Sovereign but are exercised primarily by the executive. One of such prerogative powers is the power to engage in international relations, for example, through the conclusion of treaties.

    Arguments

    The crux of the Government’s argument was that the Crown under its prerogative powers could make the Article 50 notification without Parliamentary approval and that this had to have been the intention of Parliament under the European Communities Act of 1972 (ECA 1972). The Government argued that neither the ECA nor any other primary legislation has removed the Crown’s prerogative power to withdraw from the Treaty on European Union (Lisbon Treaty) or any other treaties. The Secretary of State, David Davis, also argued that Parliament would have its say on the withdrawal agreement in any case.

    However, not everyone was happy with Mrs. May’s stated intention to by-pass Parliament and effectively take away legal rights accruing to the  British people under the EU treaties. A legal challenge against the Government’s policy position was led by investment fund manager, Mrs Gina Miller, and supported by London-based Spanish hairdresser, Deir Dos Santos, and other interested parties. They referred to the fundamental principle in UK constitutional law that rights under the law of the UK cannot be varied by the Crown in exercise of its prerogative powers unless Parliament has expressly or impliedly given the Crown this right. They, therefore, argued that Parliament has not given such authority (whether expressly or impliedly) in neither the ECA 1972 nor in any subsequent Acts.

    The Judgment

    The 30-plus page judgment was delivered by Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd, Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales. The court relied primarily on law from England and Wales but also from other Scottish and Welsh law. Referring to the common ground between the claimants, the court noted that they both acknowledged that a UK withdrawal from the EU would change domestic law in each of the UK’s jurisdictions and that once notice pursuant to Article 50 is given, it is irreversible.

    Going back to first principles and with reference to decided cases, the Court delineated several fundamental and long settled tenets of UK constitutional law. Importantly, they reiterated that sovereignty of the UK parliament was a cornerstone of UK constitutional law. The Court noted that while the ECA 1972 was an exception to the supremacy of primary legislation (Acts of Parliament), it is Parliament which made this decision and only Parliament has the power to repeal this Act if it so chooses.

    Additionally, the Court went on to reiterate that primary legislation cannot be displaced by the Crown in the exercise of prerogative powers. In other words, the Crown cannot change domestic law by exercising its prerogative powers, nor can it confer or deprive individuals of rights without Parliamentary action. Recall that the ECA 1972 gives effect to EU law in domestic law, including rights.

    In summary, the two main reasons presented by the Court for its ruling were that:

    (1) there is nothing in the text of the ECA 1972 to support that the Crown can exercise prerogative powers in such matters. Indeed, the Court methodically laid out several instances in which Parliament intended that EU law be introduced into domestic law in such a way that it could not be undone by the Crown in the exercise of its prerogative powers,

    (2) it is contrary to the constitutional principles of parliamentary sovereignty and of the inability of the Crown to change domestic law through the exercise of prerogative powers

    In summary, the Court ruled in favour of the claimants and held that the Crown had no prerogative power to give notice of withdrawal under Article 50.

    Reactions to the Ruling

    As one would expect, the ruling has brought mixed reactions. For Brexiteers and for Mrs May, the disappointment was palpable. They have viewed this defeat as undermining the will of the people. For their part, EU envoys do not appear to welcome the delay either.

    For the Pro-EU supporters, the ruling is a small victory. After all, it is one more hurdle in the road towards Article 50. Ms. Miller in her speech after the ruling reiterated that the case was about “process and not politics” and urged the Government not to appeal the ruling. First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon welcomed the ruling which she termed “hugely significant”, according to media reports.

    What does this ruling mean?

    So what do we know? Firstly, we know from the ruling that the Crown has no prerogative power to trigger Article 50 and that parliamentary approval is needed. But what form of approval should this take? Should there be just a yes or no vote or should there be a fuller debate on the scope of the negotiations as some are suggesting?   The ruling also appears to confirm that the referendum was merely advisory and not mandatory.

    Does this ruling stop Brexit? No. The Court went to great pains to explain that what it was being called upon to decide  was a question of law and not the merits or demerits of a UK withdrawal from the EU. The court has not, nor was it its role to, decide on the political issue of whether there should be a Brexit.

    But lest, we think this ruling has settled the matter of who is responsible for triggering Article 50, it should be noted that the Government has been granted leave to appeal to the UK Supreme Court which will hear the matter in December. The Supreme Court’s ruling is final. Therefore, it could either uphold the ruling of the lower court or it could overturn the lower court’s ruling and hold in favour of the Government.

    Assuming that the Supreme Court upholds the High Court’s ruling and the question goes to Parliament for a vote, there are two possible scenarios. If the members of Parliament and the Peers decide to support the wishes of the British electorate and support making the notification, then the Government is free to make its Article 50 notification. However, if the Parliament votes against the triggering of Article 50, then the situation is less clear. My own view is that if the referendum is merely advisory, then would not Parliament have the final say? It will be interesting to see what happens in such a case. But will it be a simple yes or no vote or will Parliament seek to delineate the parameters under which the negotiations take place?

    Here is another thing. It puts a spanner in the works of the quick Brexit Mrs. May was envisioning and the feasibility of the posited March 2017 deadline. There is no telling how long it will take for the question to be laid before parliament and for both houses of Parliament to debate and vote on the issue. What is certain though is that there will be more uncertainty. Some have speculated that Mrs. May may be forced to call an early general election.

    But there is one bit of good news! On the back of this news, the value of UK Pound Sterling rose to GBP to 1.25 USD, still low but higher than the slump it has endured for the past few weeks when it appeared the Government was going for a “hard” Brexit. The rationale is that Parliamentary involvement would lead to a “soft” Brexit (where the UK remains in the single market and accepts the free movement of persons) as opposed to a “hard” Brexit which Mrs. May appeared to be supporting by her statements on immigration.

    Suffice it to say, we have a long way to go before this issue of triggering Article 50 is resolved. And that is just the beginning of the Brexit process! It will be interesting to see whether the UK Government will rely on the same arguments it made in this case or whether it will change its pleadings when it makes its submissions before the Supreme Court in December. Interesting times are ahead!

    The full judgment may be accessed here.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • Brexit requires Parliamentary Approval, UK Court rules

    Brexit requires Parliamentary Approval, UK Court rules

    Alicia Nicholls

    In its judgement rendered this morning, the UK High Court has held that Parliament must vote before the UK can begin the process of leaving the European Union by giving notice pursuant to Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

    In summary, the court did not accept the argument by the Government that its prerogative powers included the ability to make such a notification without parliamentary approval. The question of whether the Article 50 notification should be made, therefore, must be submitted to Parliament for a vote.

    This is not the end of this story of course. The Government has signalled its intention to appeal the ruling.

    A longer analysis of the ruling and its implications can be read here.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.

  • EU-Canada CETA: Seven Things to Know

    EU-Canada CETA: Seven Things to Know

    Alicia Nicholls

    After a week more akin to the nail-biting final minutes of a suspense film, the European Union and Canada have finally signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) today Sunday, October 30, 2016. This sets the stage for the agreement to be provisionally applied.

    Here are seven quick things to know about CETA:

    1. CETA is the EU’s first completed  free trade agreement with a G-7 country and its most ambitious trade agreement to date -By numbers, it encompasses over 500 million people (500 million in the EU-28 and  35 million in Canada), 29 countries and 24 languages. Prior to CETA’s signature, trade relations between the EU and Canada were guided by the Framework Agreement for Commercial and Economic Cooperation, in force since 1976 as well as a number of sectoral agreements.
    2. Canada was the EU’s 11th largest trading partner in 2015 – This is according to EUROSTAT data as at April 2016 which valued Canada-EU trade in 2015 at 63,479 million euro, accounting for 1.8% of EU trade with non-EU partners. On the flip side, the EU is second only to the United States as Canada’s largest  trading partner. According to Statcan data, Canada exported $39,454.8 million ($CAN) in goods to the EU in 2015 and imported $53.004.5 in the same period.
    3. CETA was several years in the making –  Negotiations between the EU and Canada began in 2009 and the text was concluded in 2014 and received legal approval in February 2016. However,the agreement has had to overcome several hurdles, including the fact that as a “mixed” agreement under EU law, it had to obtain the approval of each of the 28 EU member countries (in accordance with their own constitutional arrangements). There has been popular and political opposition to the Agreement, including the impasse between the Belgium Federal Government and the regional government of Wallonia which had threatened  to be the final nail in the coffin until a last minute internal deal saved the day. Despite the resolution of this political impasse, some popular dissent towards the Agreement remains as evidenced by the anti-CETA protests.
    4.  Almost 99% of tariffs will be eliminated on goods trade between the EU and Canada – The exceptions are a few sensitive agricultural products. However, tariff-eliminations are only a small part of CETA and the Agreement is WTO-plus in many aspects. It includes provisions on trade in services, investment,  sustainable development, labour, environment, inter alia. It also opens up the procurement market in the EU and Canada so businesses in those countries can bid on government contracts in each other’s countries.
    5. CETA provides for a novel Investment Court System – The permanent bilateral investment tribunal provided for in CETA’s Investment Chapter (Chapter 8) is a marked departure from the ad hoc tribunals used in traditional investor-state dispute settlement systems. The tribunal will be comprised of 15 members (five EU nationals, five Canadian nationals and five nationals of third states). In addition to this new ISDS system, the investment chapter provides more explicit language regarding the State’s right to regulate, an appellate tribunal, greater provisions on transparency of proceedings and conflict of interests, as well as commitment by the EU and Canada towards the shared objective of working towards the establishment of a permanent multilateral investment court which will replace the bilateral court under CETA.
    6. CETA is expected to boost income in both the EU and Canada. According to a 2008 joint study by the European Commission and the Government of Canada, conducted prior to the launch of the negotiations, it was found that the annual real income gain  within seven years of CETA’s implementation is to be an estimated  11.6 billion euros for the EU and 8.2 billion euros for Canada. The stated benefits of CETA are job creation, a liberalised procurement market and increased merchandise and services trade and investment flows between Canada and the EU and cheaper goods and services for consumers.
    7. CETA will be the benchmark for future agreements signed by both the EU and Canada with subsequent trade partners.  The standard of ambition in the Agreement is high. CETA is likely to be the last trade agreement signed by the UK as an EU-member before the UK is expected to make its Article 50 notification and BREXIT negotiations begin (slated for March 2017).

    The full text of the Agreement may be viewed here.

    Alicia Nicholls, B.Sc., M.Sc., LL.B. is a trade and development consultant with a keen interest in sustainable development, international law and trade. You can also read more of her commentaries and follow her on Twitter @LicyLaw.